**Trader consensus in this market centers on a federal funds rate of 3.75–4.25% by the end of 2026, with 4.0% the clearest plurality outcome.** This positioning stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, which raised the median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 3.8% (from 3.4% in March) amid upward revisions to inflation. Nine of 18 participants now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike by December, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% has held steady through multiple 2026 meetings, including the July session. Elevated PCE inflation—projected at 3.6% for 2026—driven by supply shocks and Middle East-related uncertainties has prompted a more hawkish tone under Chair Kevin Warsh. Recent communications, including Governor Waller’s early September remarks, highlight data-dependent caution: further disinflation could support holding rates, while hotter readings could justify a September or later tightening move. Solid labor market conditions (unemployment near 4.3%) and resilient growth have reduced the case for easing, pushing market-implied paths higher than many private forecasters. With the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and updated projections imminent, traders are weighting the likelihood of modest policy firming or an extended hold through year-end. Lower-rate outcomes remain thinly priced, as they would require a rapid reversal in inflation trends or significant downside growth surprises not yet evident in the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0% 41.6%
3.75% 23.3%
4.25% 19.4%
3.5% 6.5%
$6,796,002 Vol.
$6,796,002 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
<1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
<1%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
23%
4.0%
42%
4.25%
19%
≥ 4.5%
5%
4.0% 41.6%
3.75% 23.3%
4.25% 19.4%
3.5% 6.5%
$6,796,002 Vol.
$6,796,002 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$252,120 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$149,943 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$147,387 Vol.
<1%
1.75%
$150,011 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$265,158 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$88,877 Vol.
<1%
2.5%
$175,659 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$62,291 Vol.
<1%
3.0%
$489,647 Vol.
<1%
3.25%
$67,053 Vol.
<1%
3.5%
$203,467 Vol.
7%
3.75%
$533,159 Vol.
23%
4.0%
$1,370,913 Vol.
42%
4.25%
$430,802 Vol.
19%
≥ 4.5%
$2,409,514 Vol.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Trader consensus in this market centers on a federal funds rate of 3.75–4.25% by the end of 2026, with 4.0% the clearest plurality outcome.** This positioning stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, which raised the median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 3.8% (from 3.4% in March) amid upward revisions to inflation. Nine of 18 participants now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike by December, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures.
The current target range of 3.50–3.75% has held steady through multiple 2026 meetings, including the July session. Elevated PCE inflation—projected at 3.6% for 2026—driven by supply shocks and Middle East-related uncertainties has prompted a more hawkish tone under Chair Kevin Warsh. Recent communications, including Governor Waller’s early September remarks, highlight data-dependent caution: further disinflation could support holding rates, while hotter readings could justify a September or later tightening move.
Solid labor market conditions (unemployment near 4.3%) and resilient growth have reduced the case for easing, pushing market-implied paths higher than many private forecasters. With the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and updated projections imminent, traders are weighting the likelihood of modest policy firming or an extended hold through year-end. Lower-rate outcomes remain thinly priced, as they would require a rapid reversal in inflation trends or significant downside growth surprises not yet evident in the data.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,796,002End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Trader consensus in this market centers on a federal funds rate of 3.75–4.25% by the end of 2026, with 4.0% the clearest plurality outcome.** This positioning stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, which raised the median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 3.8% (from 3.4% in March) amid upward revisions to inflation. Nine of 18 participants now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike by December, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures.
The current target range of 3.50–3.75% has held steady through multiple 2026 meetings, including the July session. Elevated PCE inflation—projected at 3.6% for 2026—driven by supply shocks and Middle East-related uncertainties has prompted a more hawkish tone under Chair Kevin Warsh. Recent communications, including Governor Waller’s early September remarks, highlight data-dependent caution: further disinflation could support holding rates, while hotter readings could justify a September or later tightening move.
Solid labor market conditions (unemployment near 4.3%) and resilient growth have reduced the case for easing, pushing market-implied paths higher than many private forecasters. With the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and updated projections imminent, traders are weighting the likelihood of modest policy firming or an extended hold through year-end. Lower-rate outcomes remain thinly priced, as they would require a rapid reversal in inflation trends or significant downside growth surprises not yet evident in the data.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,796,002End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus in this market centers on a federal funds rate of 3.75–4.25% by the end of 2026, with 4.0% the clearest plurality outcome.** This positioning stems primarily from the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, which raised the median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 3.8% (from 3.4% in March) amid upward revisions to inflation. Nine of 18 participants now anticipate at least one 25-basis-point hike by December, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% has held steady through multiple 2026 meetings, including the July session. Elevated PCE inflation—projected at 3.6% for 2026—driven by supply shocks and Middle East-related uncertainties has prompted a more hawkish tone under Chair Kevin Warsh. Recent communications, including Governor Waller’s early September remarks, highlight data-dependent caution: further disinflation could support holding rates, while hotter readings could justify a September or later tightening move. Solid labor market conditions (unemployment near 4.3%) and resilient growth have reduced the case for easing, pushing market-implied paths higher than many private forecasters. With the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and updated projections imminent, traders are weighting the likelihood of modest policy firming or an extended hold through year-end. Lower-rate outcomes remain thinly priced, as they would require a rapid reversal in inflation trends or significant downside growth surprises not yet evident in the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions