The closely matched probabilities around 50% for several outcomes underscore high uncertainty over which AI lab will rank third in text arena math benchmarks by end of September, with OpenAI at 37.6% and Google at 33.5% as relative frontrunners. Intense competition among large language model developers centers on advances in mathematical reasoning, where incremental improvements in training data, fine-tuning techniques, and benchmark-specific optimizations can rapidly alter standings. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, Z.ai, and Moonshot trail with lower implied odds, reflecting their specialized focus yet narrower demonstrated edge over Western counterparts in this category. Upcoming model updates or leaderboard refreshes remain the main near-term catalysts that could resolve the deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 37.6%
Google 34%
Alibaba 14%
Z.ai 7.6%
$47,103 Vol.
$47,103 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
38%
34%
Alibaba
14%
Z.ai
8%
Moonshot
4%
Baidu
2%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Anthropic
1%
MiniMax
1%
Microsoft
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Tencent
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
StepFun
<1%
OpenAI 37.6%
Google 34%
Alibaba 14%
Z.ai 7.6%
$47,103 Vol.
$47,103 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$7,702 Vol.
38%
$6,251 Vol.
34%
Alibaba
$11,335 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$2,927 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$2,037 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$2,014 Vol.
2%
Meta
$1,064 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,307 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$2,074 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$1,855 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$938 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$994 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$1,033 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$959 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$743 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$923 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$756 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$575 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$916 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$698 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for several outcomes underscore high uncertainty over which AI lab will rank third in text arena math benchmarks by end of September, with OpenAI at 37.6% and Google at 33.5% as relative frontrunners. Intense competition among large language model developers centers on advances in mathematical reasoning, where incremental improvements in training data, fine-tuning techniques, and benchmark-specific optimizations can rapidly alter standings. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, Z.ai, and Moonshot trail with lower implied odds, reflecting their specialized focus yet narrower demonstrated edge over Western counterparts in this category. Upcoming model updates or leaderboard refreshes remain the main near-term catalysts that could resolve the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$47,103End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for several outcomes underscore high uncertainty over which AI lab will rank third in text arena math benchmarks by end of September, with OpenAI at 37.6% and Google at 33.5% as relative frontrunners. Intense competition among large language model developers centers on advances in mathematical reasoning, where incremental improvements in training data, fine-tuning techniques, and benchmark-specific optimizations can rapidly alter standings. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, Z.ai, and Moonshot trail with lower implied odds, reflecting their specialized focus yet narrower demonstrated edge over Western counterparts in this category. Upcoming model updates or leaderboard refreshes remain the main near-term catalysts that could resolve the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$47,103End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 50% for several outcomes underscore high uncertainty over which AI lab will rank third in text arena math benchmarks by end of September, with OpenAI at 37.6% and Google at 33.5% as relative frontrunners. Intense competition among large language model developers centers on advances in mathematical reasoning, where incremental improvements in training data, fine-tuning techniques, and benchmark-specific optimizations can rapidly alter standings. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, Z.ai, and Moonshot trail with lower implied odds, reflecting their specialized focus yet narrower demonstrated edge over Western counterparts in this category. Upcoming model updates or leaderboard refreshes remain the main near-term catalysts that could resolve the deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions