Recent Starship V3 test flights, including Flight 13 in July 2026 with intact heat shield recovery, successful Starlink deployment, and in-space Raptor relight, have reinforced trader confidence in reaching full reusability before 2028. Multiple 2026 booster catches via the Mechazilla tower and planned upper-stage catches plus the first ship reflight targeted for late 2026 or early 2027 provide the main upward pressure on the 62.5% implied probability for yes. Remaining hurdles include rapid turnaround reliability, orbital refueling demos, and consistent heat shield performance under higher dynamic loads. Key near-term catalysts such as the next integrated flight and initial ship reuse attempts will likely determine whether momentum sustains or stalls.