**The NY-24 race features Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney against Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman in a district rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+11.** Traders price a Republican victory as near-certain at roughly 98-99% implied probability, yet the spread of outcomes across 10-35 point Republican margins shows no single bucket exceeding 18.5%. This distribution reflects limited recent polling or campaign developments that would clarify the precise margin, following Tenney’s prior double-digit wins and uncontested GOP primary. Ellman’s June primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but has not produced visible shifts in voter sentiment or fundraising that would narrow the gap. Scheduled events such as fall debates or national midterm dynamics could alter the distribution if they affect turnout among upstate moderates or rural voters, while late independent expenditures or candidate-specific controversies remain the main variables that might concentrate probabilities in narrower ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 10-15% 21%
Republican 30-35% 20%
Republican 25-30% 16%
Republican 15-20% 15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 35%+
30%
Republican 30-35%
25%
Republican 25-30%
25%
Republican 20-25%
13%
Republican 15-20%
15%
Republican 10-15%
33%
Republican 5-10%
10%
Republican 0-5%
3%
Democrat Wins
1%
Republican 10-15% 21%
Republican 30-35% 20%
Republican 25-30% 16%
Republican 15-20% 15%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 35%+
$55 Vol.
30%
Republican 30-35%
$102 Vol.
25%
Republican 25-30%
$58 Vol.
25%
Republican 20-25%
$139 Vol.
13%
Republican 15-20%
$189 Vol.
15%
Republican 10-15%
$95 Vol.
33%
Republican 5-10%
$99 Vol.
10%
Republican 0-5%
$40 Vol.
3%
Democrat Wins
$40 Vol.
1%
The 2026 NY-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The NY-24 race features Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney against Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman in a district rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+11.** Traders price a Republican victory as near-certain at roughly 98-99% implied probability, yet the spread of outcomes across 10-35 point Republican margins shows no single bucket exceeding 18.5%. This distribution reflects limited recent polling or campaign developments that would clarify the precise margin, following Tenney’s prior double-digit wins and uncontested GOP primary. Ellman’s June primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but has not produced visible shifts in voter sentiment or fundraising that would narrow the gap. Scheduled events such as fall debates or national midterm dynamics could alter the distribution if they affect turnout among upstate moderates or rural voters, while late independent expenditures or candidate-specific controversies remain the main variables that might concentrate probabilities in narrower ranges.
The 2026 NY-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$816End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The NY-24 race features Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney against Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman in a district rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+11.** Traders price a Republican victory as near-certain at roughly 98-99% implied probability, yet the spread of outcomes across 10-35 point Republican margins shows no single bucket exceeding 18.5%. This distribution reflects limited recent polling or campaign developments that would clarify the precise margin, following Tenney’s prior double-digit wins and uncontested GOP primary. Ellman’s June primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but has not produced visible shifts in voter sentiment or fundraising that would narrow the gap. Scheduled events such as fall debates or national midterm dynamics could alter the distribution if they affect turnout among upstate moderates or rural voters, while late independent expenditures or candidate-specific controversies remain the main variables that might concentrate probabilities in narrower ranges.
The 2026 NY-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$816End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The NY-24 race features Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney against Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman in a district rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+11.** Traders price a Republican victory as near-certain at roughly 98-99% implied probability, yet the spread of outcomes across 10-35 point Republican margins shows no single bucket exceeding 18.5%. This distribution reflects limited recent polling or campaign developments that would clarify the precise margin, following Tenney’s prior double-digit wins and uncontested GOP primary. Ellman’s June primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but has not produced visible shifts in voter sentiment or fundraising that would narrow the gap. Scheduled events such as fall debates or national midterm dynamics could alter the distribution if they affect turnout among upstate moderates or rural voters, while late independent expenditures or candidate-specific controversies remain the main variables that might concentrate probabilities in narrower ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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