The NY-13 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent 60-plus point margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the nomination in the June 23 primary by defeating longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat, drawing support from younger and progressive voters in Manhattan and the Bronx. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Manual Williams. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising in this urban district further reinforce the positioning. A major scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout collapse could narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain improbable in this environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-13 House Election Winner
NY-13 House Election Winner
$39,925 Vol.
$39,925 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$39,925 Vol.
$39,925 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$27,409 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$12,516 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-13 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent 60-plus point margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the nomination in the June 23 primary by defeating longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat, drawing support from younger and progressive voters in Manhattan and the Bronx. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Manual Williams. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising in this urban district further reinforce the positioning. A major scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout collapse could narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain improbable in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$39,925End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-13 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent 60-plus point margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the nomination in the June 23 primary by defeating longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat, drawing support from younger and progressive voters in Manhattan and the Bronx. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Manual Williams. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising in this urban district further reinforce the positioning. A major scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout collapse could narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain improbable in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,925End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-13 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+32 Partisan Voter Index and consistent 60-plus point margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the nomination in the June 23 primary by defeating longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat, drawing support from younger and progressive voters in Manhattan and the Bronx. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Manual Williams. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising in this urban district further reinforce the positioning. A major scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout collapse could narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate such shifts remain improbable in this environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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