Anthropic’s rapid 2026 cadence of Opus updates—Opus 4.8 in late May followed by Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader views on the next flagship release. Opus 5 delivered notable gains in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and efficiency at the same $5/$25 per million tokens pricing, while introducing adaptive effort controls and improved self-verification. The company continues iterating on the Claude 5 family with Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 variants in September, signaling sustained investment in higher-intelligence tiers amid competition from OpenAI and Google models. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or earnings updates that could clarify timelines for Opus 6 or equivalent, though product cycles can shift with safety reviews or compute constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$88,270 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
81%
October 31
95%
December 31
99%
$88,270 Vol.
September 30
$30,161 Vol.
81%
October 31
$11,793 Vol.
95%
December 31
$4,802 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid 2026 cadence of Opus updates—Opus 4.8 in late May followed by Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader views on the next flagship release. Opus 5 delivered notable gains in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and efficiency at the same $5/$25 per million tokens pricing, while introducing adaptive effort controls and improved self-verification. The company continues iterating on the Claude 5 family with Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 variants in September, signaling sustained investment in higher-intelligence tiers amid competition from OpenAI and Google models. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or earnings updates that could clarify timelines for Opus 6 or equivalent, though product cycles can shift with safety reviews or compute constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 6:32 PM ET
Volume
$88,270End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid 2026 cadence of Opus updates—Opus 4.8 in late May followed by Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader views on the next flagship release. Opus 5 delivered notable gains in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and efficiency at the same $5/$25 per million tokens pricing, while introducing adaptive effort controls and improved self-verification. The company continues iterating on the Claude 5 family with Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 variants in September, signaling sustained investment in higher-intelligence tiers amid competition from OpenAI and Google models. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or earnings updates that could clarify timelines for Opus 6 or equivalent, though product cycles can shift with safety reviews or compute constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,270End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s rapid 2026 cadence of Opus updates—Opus 4.8 in late May followed by Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader views on the next flagship release. Opus 5 delivered notable gains in agentic coding, long-horizon reasoning, and efficiency at the same $5/$25 per million tokens pricing, while introducing adaptive effort controls and improved self-verification. The company continues iterating on the Claude 5 family with Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 variants in September, signaling sustained investment in higher-intelligence tiers amid competition from OpenAI and Google models. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences or earnings updates that could clarify timelines for Opus 6 or equivalent, though product cycles can shift with safety reviews or compute constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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