**New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, has produced a general-election matchup between Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and Republican former Senator John E. Sununu that most forecasters rate Lean or Likely Democratic.** Pappas holds a clear lead in the September 8 Democratic primary, while Sununu dominates the Republican primary. Recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polling shows the general-election contest within a few points, reflecting New Hampshire’s swing-state character and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Traders appear to weigh the state’s recent Democratic success in Senate races, Pappas’s moderate profile and name recognition, and structural factors that have kept the seat out of Republican hands since 2010, producing the current 83.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$96,247 Vol.
$96,247 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
84%
Republican
18%
$96,247 Vol.
$96,247 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$66,633 Vol.
84%
Republican
$29,614 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, has produced a general-election matchup between Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and Republican former Senator John E. Sununu that most forecasters rate Lean or Likely Democratic.**
Pappas holds a clear lead in the September 8 Democratic primary, while Sununu dominates the Republican primary. Recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polling shows the general-election contest within a few points, reflecting New Hampshire’s swing-state character and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Traders appear to weigh the state’s recent Democratic success in Senate races, Pappas’s moderate profile and name recognition, and structural factors that have kept the seat out of Republican hands since 2010, producing the current 83.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$96,247End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.**New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, has produced a general-election matchup between Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and Republican former Senator John E. Sununu that most forecasters rate Lean or Likely Democratic.**
Pappas holds a clear lead in the September 8 Democratic primary, while Sununu dominates the Republican primary. Recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polling shows the general-election contest within a few points, reflecting New Hampshire’s swing-state character and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Traders appear to weigh the state’s recent Democratic success in Senate races, Pappas’s moderate profile and name recognition, and structural factors that have kept the seat out of Republican hands since 2010, producing the current 83.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$96,247End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, has produced a general-election matchup between Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and Republican former Senator John E. Sununu that most forecasters rate Lean or Likely Democratic.** Pappas holds a clear lead in the September 8 Democratic primary, while Sununu dominates the Republican primary. Recent University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm polling shows the general-election contest within a few points, reflecting New Hampshire’s swing-state character and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Traders appear to weigh the state’s recent Democratic success in Senate races, Pappas’s moderate profile and name recognition, and structural factors that have kept the seat out of Republican hands since 2010, producing the current 83.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions