**Trader sentiment for Warsaw’s September 6, 2026 minimum temperature centers on the narrow 11–13 °C band because official forecasts and model runs converge on an overnight low in that range.** Westerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers have limited radiative cooling while keeping dew points near 10–11 °C, preventing sharper drops. Current observations show temperatures falling from afternoon highs near 18–19 °C to early-morning values around 12–13 °C, with the precise minimum hinging on the timing of cloud breaks and wind speeds of 5–8 m/s that maintain mixing. Ensemble guidance places the most likely outcome between 11 °C and 13 °C, producing the near-even market probabilities (11 °C at 33 %, 12 °C at 34 %, 13 °C at 33 %). Lower probabilities on 10 °C or below reflect the low likelihood of stronger cold advection or clear-sky radiative loss under the prevailing pattern, while higher values remain improbable given the observed cooling trend. Updated model runs and official minimum readings will determine final resolution within this tight scientific window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 6?
8°C or below 49%
12°C 47%
11°C 45%
10°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
49%
9°C
7%
10°C
26%
11°C
45%
12°C
47%
13°C
45%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
8°C or below 49%
12°C 47%
11°C 45%
10°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$18 Vol.
49%
9°C
$15 Vol.
7%
10°C
$2 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
47%
13°C
$3 Vol.
45%
14°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Warsaw’s September 6, 2026 minimum temperature centers on the narrow 11–13 °C band because official forecasts and model runs converge on an overnight low in that range.** Westerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers have limited radiative cooling while keeping dew points near 10–11 °C, preventing sharper drops.
Current observations show temperatures falling from afternoon highs near 18–19 °C to early-morning values around 12–13 °C, with the precise minimum hinging on the timing of cloud breaks and wind speeds of 5–8 m/s that maintain mixing. Ensemble guidance places the most likely outcome between 11 °C and 13 °C, producing the near-even market probabilities (11 °C at 33 %, 12 °C at 34 %, 13 °C at 33 %). Lower probabilities on 10 °C or below reflect the low likelihood of stronger cold advection or clear-sky radiative loss under the prevailing pattern, while higher values remain improbable given the observed cooling trend. Updated model runs and official minimum readings will determine final resolution within this tight scientific window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$218End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Warsaw’s September 6, 2026 minimum temperature centers on the narrow 11–13 °C band because official forecasts and model runs converge on an overnight low in that range.** Westerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers have limited radiative cooling while keeping dew points near 10–11 °C, preventing sharper drops.
Current observations show temperatures falling from afternoon highs near 18–19 °C to early-morning values around 12–13 °C, with the precise minimum hinging on the timing of cloud breaks and wind speeds of 5–8 m/s that maintain mixing. Ensemble guidance places the most likely outcome between 11 °C and 13 °C, producing the near-even market probabilities (11 °C at 33 %, 12 °C at 34 %, 13 °C at 33 %). Lower probabilities on 10 °C or below reflect the low likelihood of stronger cold advection or clear-sky radiative loss under the prevailing pattern, while higher values remain improbable given the observed cooling trend. Updated model runs and official minimum readings will determine final resolution within this tight scientific window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$218End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Warsaw’s September 6, 2026 minimum temperature centers on the narrow 11–13 °C band because official forecasts and model runs converge on an overnight low in that range.** Westerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers have limited radiative cooling while keeping dew points near 10–11 °C, preventing sharper drops. Current observations show temperatures falling from afternoon highs near 18–19 °C to early-morning values around 12–13 °C, with the precise minimum hinging on the timing of cloud breaks and wind speeds of 5–8 m/s that maintain mixing. Ensemble guidance places the most likely outcome between 11 °C and 13 °C, producing the near-even market probabilities (11 °C at 33 %, 12 °C at 34 %, 13 °C at 33 %). Lower probabilities on 10 °C or below reflect the low likelihood of stronger cold advection or clear-sky radiative loss under the prevailing pattern, while higher values remain improbable given the observed cooling trend. Updated model runs and official minimum readings will determine final resolution within this tight scientific window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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