Pennsylvania's 17 House districts currently give Republicans a 10-7 edge following 2024 flips in two eastern seats. Four Republican-held districts—PA-1, PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10—stand out as the primary battlegrounds, each decided by narrow margins in the prior cycle and now rated competitive or toss-up by forecasters after Democratic primaries in May 2026 produced targeted challengers. Governor Josh Shapiro's multimillion-dollar coordinated campaign and candidate recruitment have boosted Democratic efforts in these areas, aligning with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party often secures modest net gains. Trader consensus clustering around 9 seats reflects expectations of one to three flips while Democrats hold their existing seats, with limited movement anticipated absent major shifts in turnout or late-cycle developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9 41%
11 26%
10 17%
8 8%
$13,067 Vol.
$13,067 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<7
<1%
7
5%
8
8%
9
41%
10
17%
11
26%
12+
2%
9 41%
11 26%
10 17%
8 8%
$13,067 Vol.
$13,067 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<7
$515 Vol.
<1%
7
$2,800 Vol.
5%
8
$1,105 Vol.
8%
9
$2,689 Vol.
41%
10
$1,667 Vol.
17%
11
$3,635 Vol.
26%
12+
$656 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Pennsylvania US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Pennsylvania's 17 House districts currently give Republicans a 10-7 edge following 2024 flips in two eastern seats. Four Republican-held districts—PA-1, PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10—stand out as the primary battlegrounds, each decided by narrow margins in the prior cycle and now rated competitive or toss-up by forecasters after Democratic primaries in May 2026 produced targeted challengers. Governor Josh Shapiro's multimillion-dollar coordinated campaign and candidate recruitment have boosted Democratic efforts in these areas, aligning with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party often secures modest net gains. Trader consensus clustering around 9 seats reflects expectations of one to three flips while Democrats hold their existing seats, with limited movement anticipated absent major shifts in turnout or late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Pennsylvania US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Pennsylvania US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$13,067End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Pennsylvania US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Pennsylvania's 17 House districts currently give Republicans a 10-7 edge following 2024 flips in two eastern seats. Four Republican-held districts—PA-1, PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10—stand out as the primary battlegrounds, each decided by narrow margins in the prior cycle and now rated competitive or toss-up by forecasters after Democratic primaries in May 2026 produced targeted challengers. Governor Josh Shapiro's multimillion-dollar coordinated campaign and candidate recruitment have boosted Democratic efforts in these areas, aligning with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party often secures modest net gains. Trader consensus clustering around 9 seats reflects expectations of one to three flips while Democrats hold their existing seats, with limited movement anticipated absent major shifts in turnout or late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Pennsylvania US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Pennsylvania US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,067End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pennsylvania's 17 House districts currently give Republicans a 10-7 edge following 2024 flips in two eastern seats. Four Republican-held districts—PA-1, PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10—stand out as the primary battlegrounds, each decided by narrow margins in the prior cycle and now rated competitive or toss-up by forecasters after Democratic primaries in May 2026 produced targeted challengers. Governor Josh Shapiro's multimillion-dollar coordinated campaign and candidate recruitment have boosted Democratic efforts in these areas, aligning with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party often secures modest net gains. Trader consensus clustering around 9 seats reflects expectations of one to three flips while Democrats hold their existing seats, with limited movement anticipated absent major shifts in turnout or late-cycle developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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