Global seismic data indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, drawn from long-term USGS records showing about 120–150 events annually in the 6–6.9 range. Current trader consensus favoring zero or one event next week reflects the absence of recent large quakes, with the latest M6.3 recorded September 3 near Alaska and no active aftershock sequences or notable foreshock activity reported by monitoring agencies. Short-term Poisson-like variability, regional tectonic loading rates, and the potential for distant triggering explain why probabilities remain closely split rather than favoring higher counts. Updated USGS or international seismic bulletins through the period will provide the definitive counts for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
0 42%
1 35%
2 16%
3 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
0
42%
1
35%
2
16%
3
5%
4
4%
5
1%
more than 5
1%
0 42%
1 35%
2 16%
3 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
0
$111 Vol.
42%
1
$0 Vol.
35%
2
$0 Vol.
16%
3
$10 Vol.
5%
4
$0 Vol.
4%
5
$99 Vol.
1%
more than 5
$58 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Global seismic data indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, drawn from long-term USGS records showing about 120–150 events annually in the 6–6.9 range. Current trader consensus favoring zero or one event next week reflects the absence of recent large quakes, with the latest M6.3 recorded September 3 near Alaska and no active aftershock sequences or notable foreshock activity reported by monitoring agencies. Short-term Poisson-like variability, regional tectonic loading rates, and the potential for distant triggering explain why probabilities remain closely split rather than favoring higher counts. Updated USGS or international seismic bulletins through the period will provide the definitive counts for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$277End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Global seismic data indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, drawn from long-term USGS records showing about 120–150 events annually in the 6–6.9 range. Current trader consensus favoring zero or one event next week reflects the absence of recent large quakes, with the latest M6.3 recorded September 3 near Alaska and no active aftershock sequences or notable foreshock activity reported by monitoring agencies. Short-term Poisson-like variability, regional tectonic loading rates, and the potential for distant triggering explain why probabilities remain closely split rather than favoring higher counts. Updated USGS or international seismic bulletins through the period will provide the definitive counts for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$277End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic data indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, drawn from long-term USGS records showing about 120–150 events annually in the 6–6.9 range. Current trader consensus favoring zero or one event next week reflects the absence of recent large quakes, with the latest M6.3 recorded September 3 near Alaska and no active aftershock sequences or notable foreshock activity reported by monitoring agencies. Short-term Poisson-like variability, regional tectonic loading rates, and the potential for distant triggering explain why probabilities remain closely split rather than favoring higher counts. Updated USGS or international seismic bulletins through the period will provide the definitive counts for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions