Traders assign a 90% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 31–September 6, 2026, reflecting the absence of qualifying events in official USGS and EMSC catalogs through early September. Recent monitoring shows only lower-magnitude activity, including a 6.3 event in the Fox Islands on September 3 and a 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2, both below the resolution threshold. This quiet period follows clustered M6+ activity earlier in August, consistent with typical variability in global seismicity where large events are episodic rather than evenly distributed. No major foreshock sequences or tectonic triggers have emerged in key subduction zones to elevate near-term odds of an M6.5+ occurrence before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?
0 90%
1 10%
3 <1%
2 <1%
$10,531 Vol.
$10,531 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
0
90%
1
10%
2
1%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
1%
more than 5
<1%
0 90%
1 10%
3 <1%
2 <1%
$10,531 Vol.
$10,531 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
0
$6,661 Vol.
90%
1
$1,391 Vol.
10%
2
$1,205 Vol.
1%
3
$371 Vol.
1%
4
$296 Vol.
<1%
5
$347 Vol.
1%
more than 5
$260 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 90% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 31–September 6, 2026, reflecting the absence of qualifying events in official USGS and EMSC catalogs through early September. Recent monitoring shows only lower-magnitude activity, including a 6.3 event in the Fox Islands on September 3 and a 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2, both below the resolution threshold. This quiet period follows clustered M6+ activity earlier in August, consistent with typical variability in global seismicity where large events are episodic rather than evenly distributed. No major foreshock sequences or tectonic triggers have emerged in key subduction zones to elevate near-term odds of an M6.5+ occurrence before the market closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$10,531End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 90% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 31–September 6, 2026, reflecting the absence of qualifying events in official USGS and EMSC catalogs through early September. Recent monitoring shows only lower-magnitude activity, including a 6.3 event in the Fox Islands on September 3 and a 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2, both below the resolution threshold. This quiet period follows clustered M6+ activity earlier in August, consistent with typical variability in global seismicity where large events are episodic rather than evenly distributed. No major foreshock sequences or tectonic triggers have emerged in key subduction zones to elevate near-term odds of an M6.5+ occurrence before the market closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$10,531End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 90% implied probability to zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 31–September 6, 2026, reflecting the absence of qualifying events in official USGS and EMSC catalogs through early September. Recent monitoring shows only lower-magnitude activity, including a 6.3 event in the Fox Islands on September 3 and a 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands region on September 2, both below the resolution threshold. This quiet period follows clustered M6+ activity earlier in August, consistent with typical variability in global seismicity where large events are episodic rather than evenly distributed. No major foreshock sequences or tectonic triggers have emerged in key subduction zones to elevate near-term odds of an M6.5+ occurrence before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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