Trader consensus on the number of magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide during September 7–13 centers on moderate weekly totals near historical norms, with closely matched probabilities across 7–11 reflecting Poisson variability around an average rate of roughly 8–12 such events. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire and mid-ocean ridges drive baseline activity, while recent sequences in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Alaska regions illustrate how aftershocks can temporarily elevate counts above background levels. USGS data show typical fluctuations without sustained global anomalies, and short-term forecasts depend on whether new mainshocks trigger additional events within the resolution window. Continuous seismic monitoring updates will refine probabilities as the period progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
≤6 21%
8 14%
7 13%
more than 13 12%

≤6
21%

7
13%

8
14%

9
12%

10
10%

11
10%

12
8%

13
8%

more than 13
12%
≤6 21%
8 14%
7 13%
more than 13 12%

≤6
21%

7
13%

8
14%

9
12%

10
10%

11
10%

12
8%

13
8%

more than 13
12%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the number of magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide during September 7–13 centers on moderate weekly totals near historical norms, with closely matched probabilities across 7–11 reflecting Poisson variability around an average rate of roughly 8–12 such events. Subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire and mid-ocean ridges drive baseline activity, while recent sequences in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Alaska regions illustrate how aftershocks can temporarily elevate counts above background levels. USGS data show typical fluctuations without sustained global anomalies, and short-term forecasts depend on whether new mainshocks trigger additional events within the resolution window. Continuous seismic monitoring updates will refine probabilities as the period progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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