**Current 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% reflect elevated term premiums amid heavy federal debt issuance exceeding $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP, and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure.** Inflation pressures from sticky services and energy prices have kept real yields firm, while a more hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh—with reduced forward guidance and recent dissent on policy—has shifted market-implied rate paths higher. Price-sensitive private investors now dominate Treasury holdings, amplifying sensitivity to supply dynamics. Treasury buyback expansions offer limited near-term support. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and labor data through year-end that could influence whether yields test higher levels before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 30, 2026
6.00%
38%
5.80%
50%
5.70%
50%
5.65%
50%
5.60%
50%
5.55%
50%
5.50%
51%
5.45%
62%
5.40%
64%
$0.00 Vol.
6.00%
$0 Vol.
38%
5.80%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.70%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.65%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.60%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.55%
$0 Vol.
50%
5.50%
$0 Vol.
51%
5.45%
$0 Vol.
62%
5.40%
$0 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**Current 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% reflect elevated term premiums amid heavy federal debt issuance exceeding $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP, and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure.** Inflation pressures from sticky services and energy prices have kept real yields firm, while a more hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh—with reduced forward guidance and recent dissent on policy—has shifted market-implied rate paths higher. Price-sensitive private investors now dominate Treasury holdings, amplifying sensitivity to supply dynamics. Treasury buyback expansions offer limited near-term support. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and labor data through year-end that could influence whether yields test higher levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**Current 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% reflect elevated term premiums amid heavy federal debt issuance exceeding $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP, and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure.** Inflation pressures from sticky services and energy prices have kept real yields firm, while a more hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh—with reduced forward guidance and recent dissent on policy—has shifted market-implied rate paths higher. Price-sensitive private investors now dominate Treasury holdings, amplifying sensitivity to supply dynamics. Treasury buyback expansions offer limited near-term support. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and labor data through year-end that could influence whether yields test higher levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Current 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% reflect elevated term premiums amid heavy federal debt issuance exceeding $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP, and competition from corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure.** Inflation pressures from sticky services and energy prices have kept real yields firm, while a more hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh—with reduced forward guidance and recent dissent on policy—has shifted market-implied rate paths higher. Price-sensitive private investors now dominate Treasury holdings, amplifying sensitivity to supply dynamics. Treasury buyback expansions offer limited near-term support. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, CPI releases, and labor data through year-end that could influence whether yields test higher levels before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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