xAI's Grok 5, a planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt supercluster, has missed repeated Q1 and Q2 2026 targets after earlier slippage from late 2025, leaving it still in active training as of early September. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with low implied probabilities for near-term release and roughly 64% odds by year-end, driven by the model's unprecedented scale, post-training requirements, and xAI's parallel focus on rapid interim foundation models such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that target coding and agentic benchmarks. Recent announcements emphasize monthly releases through 2026 and supplemental training on proprietary data, while competitive dynamics with OpenAI and Anthropic models keep pressure on timelines; any credible confirmation of training completion or public beta would serve as the next major catalyst for odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,025 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
October 31
10%
November 30
27%
December 31
64%
$11,025 Vol.
October 31
$1,847 Vol.
10%
November 30
$614 Vol.
27%
December 31
$3,487 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5, a planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt supercluster, has missed repeated Q1 and Q2 2026 targets after earlier slippage from late 2025, leaving it still in active training as of early September. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with low implied probabilities for near-term release and roughly 64% odds by year-end, driven by the model's unprecedented scale, post-training requirements, and xAI's parallel focus on rapid interim foundation models such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that target coding and agentic benchmarks. Recent announcements emphasize monthly releases through 2026 and supplemental training on proprietary data, while competitive dynamics with OpenAI and Anthropic models keep pressure on timelines; any credible confirmation of training completion or public beta would serve as the next major catalyst for odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$11,025End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 5, a planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt supercluster, has missed repeated Q1 and Q2 2026 targets after earlier slippage from late 2025, leaving it still in active training as of early September. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with low implied probabilities for near-term release and roughly 64% odds by year-end, driven by the model's unprecedented scale, post-training requirements, and xAI's parallel focus on rapid interim foundation models such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that target coding and agentic benchmarks. Recent announcements emphasize monthly releases through 2026 and supplemental training on proprietary data, while competitive dynamics with OpenAI and Anthropic models keep pressure on timelines; any credible confirmation of training completion or public beta would serve as the next major catalyst for odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,025End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok 5, a planned 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model training on the Colossus 2 gigawatt supercluster, has missed repeated Q1 and Q2 2026 targets after earlier slippage from late 2025, leaving it still in active training as of early September. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with low implied probabilities for near-term release and roughly 64% odds by year-end, driven by the model's unprecedented scale, post-training requirements, and xAI's parallel focus on rapid interim foundation models such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that target coding and agentic benchmarks. Recent announcements emphasize monthly releases through 2026 and supplemental training on proprietary data, while competitive dynamics with OpenAI and Anthropic models keep pressure on timelines; any credible confirmation of training completion or public beta would serve as the next major catalyst for odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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