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icon for California Recall Election Reform Proposition

California Recall Election Reform Proposition

icon for California Recall Election Reform Proposition

California Recall Election Reform Proposition

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0% chance
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NEW
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**Proposition 5, a legislative constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would eliminate the simultaneous successor question in state officer recall elections.** Voters would decide only on removal, with vacancies filled afterward through existing special election or appointment rules—except for the governor, where the lieutenant governor would assume the role under specified timelines. The measure, referred by the legislature and backed by Secretary of State Shirley Weber and the League of Women Voters of California, aims to simplify the process and reduce replacement politics. Opposition from groups like the Election Integrity Project California highlights concerns over accountability and procedural changes. As the election nears with no dominant recent campaign developments or polling shifts, trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% "No" probability indicates modest skepticism toward altering the established recall framework.

Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$20
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:32 PM ET
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**Proposition 5, a legislative constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would eliminate the simultaneous successor question in state officer recall elections.** Voters would decide only on removal, with vacancies filled afterward through existing special election or appointment rules—except for the governor, where the lieutenant governor would assume the role under specified timelines. The measure, referred by the legislature and backed by Secretary of State Shirley Weber and the League of Women Voters of California, aims to simplify the process and reduce replacement politics. Opposition from groups like the Election Integrity Project California highlights concerns over accountability and procedural changes. As the election nears with no dominant recent campaign developments or polling shifts, trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% "No" probability indicates modest skepticism toward altering the established recall framework.

Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$20
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:32 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Recall Election Reform Proposition" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 42% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 42¢, the market collectively assigns a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"California Recall Election Reform Proposition" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "California Recall Election Reform Proposition," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "California Recall Election Reform Proposition" is 42% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "California Recall Election Reform Proposition" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.