Katie Hobbs holds an 82% implied probability of winning Maricopa County in the November 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, far ahead of Republican nominee Andy Biggs at 11%. As the Democratic incumbent seeking a second term, Hobbs benefits from consistent polling leads of 5–7 points statewide in a battleground state, where Maricopa's large suburban electorate has historically supported her over more conservative challengers. Biggs secured the GOP nomination in the July 21 primary with strong Trump backing and over 70% of the vote but faces structural headwinds in the county's diverse voter base. Minor-party and write-in options register at lower trader interest, reflecting limited expectations for them to carry the county. No major late-breaking developments have altered the positioning in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Katie Hobbs (D)
85%
Andy Biggs (R)
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Katie Hobbs (D)
$1,454 Vol.
85%
Andy Biggs (R)
$116 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Maricopa County in the general election for Governor of Arizona, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.Katie Hobbs holds an 82% implied probability of winning Maricopa County in the November 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, far ahead of Republican nominee Andy Biggs at 11%. As the Democratic incumbent seeking a second term, Hobbs benefits from consistent polling leads of 5–7 points statewide in a battleground state, where Maricopa's large suburban electorate has historically supported her over more conservative challengers. Biggs secured the GOP nomination in the July 21 primary with strong Trump backing and over 70% of the vote but faces structural headwinds in the county's diverse voter base. Minor-party and write-in options register at lower trader interest, reflecting limited expectations for them to carry the county. No major late-breaking developments have altered the positioning in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Maricopa County in the general election for Governor of Arizona, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,570End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Maricopa County in the general election for Governor of Arizona, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.Katie Hobbs holds an 82% implied probability of winning Maricopa County in the November 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, far ahead of Republican nominee Andy Biggs at 11%. As the Democratic incumbent seeking a second term, Hobbs benefits from consistent polling leads of 5–7 points statewide in a battleground state, where Maricopa's large suburban electorate has historically supported her over more conservative challengers. Biggs secured the GOP nomination in the July 21 primary with strong Trump backing and over 70% of the vote but faces structural headwinds in the county's diverse voter base. Minor-party and write-in options register at lower trader interest, reflecting limited expectations for them to carry the county. No major late-breaking developments have altered the positioning in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Maricopa County in the general election for Governor of Arizona, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Arizona, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Maricopa County.
Volume
$1,570End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Katie Hobbs holds an 82% implied probability of winning Maricopa County in the November 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, far ahead of Republican nominee Andy Biggs at 11%. As the Democratic incumbent seeking a second term, Hobbs benefits from consistent polling leads of 5–7 points statewide in a battleground state, where Maricopa's large suburban electorate has historically supported her over more conservative challengers. Biggs secured the GOP nomination in the July 21 primary with strong Trump backing and over 70% of the vote but faces structural headwinds in the county's diverse voter base. Minor-party and write-in options register at lower trader interest, reflecting limited expectations for them to carry the county. No major late-breaking developments have altered the positioning in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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