Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys, including continuous monitoring by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have identified no asteroids or meteoroids capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026, driving the 96.4% market-implied probability of “No.” Historical flux data indicate that objects large enough for such an airburst—typically 10–20 meters across—strike Earth only every few decades on average, with no known candidates on collision trajectories this year. While short-warning discoveries or undetected fragments remain theoretically possible given gaps in coverage for smaller bodies, the absence of any alerts from official repositories like the CNEOS fireball database reinforces trader consensus around a low annual likelihood.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys, including continuous monitoring by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have identified no asteroids or meteoroids capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026, driving the 96.4% market-implied probability of “No.” Historical flux data indicate that objects large enough for such an airburst—typically 10–20 meters across—strike Earth only every few decades on average, with no known candidates on collision trajectories this year. While short-warning discoveries or undetected fragments remain theoretically possible given gaps in coverage for smaller bodies, the absence of any alerts from official repositories like the CNEOS fireball database reinforces trader consensus around a low annual likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys, including continuous monitoring by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have identified no asteroids or meteoroids capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026, driving the 96.4% market-implied probability of “No.” Historical flux data indicate that objects large enough for such an airburst—typically 10–20 meters across—strike Earth only every few decades on average, with no known candidates on collision trajectories this year. While short-warning discoveries or undetected fragments remain theoretically possible given gaps in coverage for smaller bodies, the absence of any alerts from official repositories like the CNEOS fireball database reinforces trader consensus around a low annual likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and international near-Earth object surveys, including continuous monitoring by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have identified no asteroids or meteoroids capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026, driving the 96.4% market-implied probability of “No.” Historical flux data indicate that objects large enough for such an airburst—typically 10–20 meters across—strike Earth only every few decades on average, with no known candidates on collision trajectories this year. While short-warning discoveries or undetected fragments remain theoretically possible given gaps in coverage for smaller bodies, the absence of any alerts from official repositories like the CNEOS fireball database reinforces trader consensus around a low annual likelihood.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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