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icon for Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?
Politics·Congress

Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?
Politics·Congress

Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$3,704 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$514 Vol.

6%

December 31

$2,025 Vol.

54%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans face significant internal divisions over advancing a third reconciliation package after passing the $70 billion Secure America Act in June 2026, which funded immigration enforcement through fiscal year 2029. Efforts to pursue another bill for defense spending or other priorities stalled in summer 2026 due to differing priorities among senators, concerns over narrow margins, and reluctance to repeat the lengthy vote-a-rama process ahead of November midterms. Senate leaders have delayed budget resolution action into September, favoring regular appropriations amid pushback from appropriators. Trader sentiment reflects these procedural and political barriers, as any new package would require unified party-line support in both chambers to bypass the filibuster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,704
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans face significant internal divisions over advancing a third reconciliation package after passing the $70 billion Secure America Act in June 2026, which funded immigration enforcement through fiscal year 2029. Efforts to pursue another bill for defense spending or other priorities stalled in summer 2026 due to differing priorities among senators, concerns over narrow margins, and reluctance to repeat the lengthy vote-a-rama process ahead of November midterms. Senate leaders have delayed budget resolution action into September, favoring regular appropriations amid pushback from appropriators. Trader sentiment reflects these procedural and political barriers, as any new package would require unified party-line support in both chambers to bypass the filibuster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,704
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 54%, followed by "September 30" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?" is "December 31" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.