Recent polling and forecasting models point to a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly 6-8 points on the generic congressional ballot, driven by President Trump's approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s amid economic pressures and other issues. This aligns with historical patterns in which the president's party typically loses seats in midterms, though Republican-led redistricting has added structural defenses that could moderate gains. Forecasters project Democratic seat pickups in the 15-30 range, translating to a popular vote edge likely in the mid-single digits. Trader consensus on narrower or Republican-leaning margins remains low, reflecting the current polling lead and limited time for major shifts before November 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 6-8% 23%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$131,925 Vol.
$131,925 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
1%
Democrats 12-14%
6%
Democrats 10-12%
22%
Democrats 8-10%
28%
Democrats 6-8%
23%
Democrats 4-6%
12%
Democrats 2-4%
6%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
3%
Republicans 2-4%
2%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
1%
Democrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 6-8% 23%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 4-6% 12%
$131,925 Vol.
$131,925 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,358 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$3,011 Vol.
1%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,552 Vol.
6%
Democrats 10-12%
$8,955 Vol.
22%
Democrats 8-10%
$14,482 Vol.
28%
Democrats 6-8%
$15,599 Vol.
23%
Democrats 4-6%
$7,010 Vol.
12%
Democrats 2-4%
$15,636 Vol.
6%
Democrats 0-2%
$16,265 Vol.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,349 Vol.
3%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,997 Vol.
2%
Republicans 4-6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,962 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling and forecasting models point to a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly 6-8 points on the generic congressional ballot, driven by President Trump's approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s amid economic pressures and other issues. This aligns with historical patterns in which the president's party typically loses seats in midterms, though Republican-led redistricting has added structural defenses that could moderate gains. Forecasters project Democratic seat pickups in the 15-30 range, translating to a popular vote edge likely in the mid-single digits. Trader consensus on narrower or Republican-leaning margins remains low, reflecting the current polling lead and limited time for major shifts before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$131,925End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling and forecasting models point to a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly 6-8 points on the generic congressional ballot, driven by President Trump's approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s amid economic pressures and other issues. This aligns with historical patterns in which the president's party typically loses seats in midterms, though Republican-led redistricting has added structural defenses that could moderate gains. Forecasters project Democratic seat pickups in the 15-30 range, translating to a popular vote edge likely in the mid-single digits. Trader consensus on narrower or Republican-leaning margins remains low, reflecting the current polling lead and limited time for major shifts before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$131,925End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and forecasting models point to a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly 6-8 points on the generic congressional ballot, driven by President Trump's approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s amid economic pressures and other issues. This aligns with historical patterns in which the president's party typically loses seats in midterms, though Republican-led redistricting has added structural defenses that could moderate gains. Forecasters project Democratic seat pickups in the 15-30 range, translating to a popular vote edge likely in the mid-single digits. Trader consensus on narrower or Republican-leaning margins remains low, reflecting the current polling lead and limited time for major shifts before November 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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