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icon for Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
Politics·Democrats

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

icon for Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
Politics·Democrats

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

32% chance
Polymarket
NEW
32% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Prominent female prospects have largely stepped back from the 2028 Democratic field, while early polling aggregates and prediction markets show multiple male contenders with stronger or comparable positioning.** Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a run in May 2026, removing a frequently cited top-tier option. Kamala Harris has indicated she is considering another bid, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has gained ground in some surveys and markets, yet neither consistently leads national polling averages or commands majority implied probability in nominee contracts. Leading names in recent aggregates include Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff alongside Harris and Ocasio-Cortez, with no single woman dominating the field. Traders appear to price the absence of additional high-profile female entrants and the competitive positioning of male governors and senators as tilting the nomination toward a man.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,082
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Prominent female prospects have largely stepped back from the 2028 Democratic field, while early polling aggregates and prediction markets show multiple male contenders with stronger or comparable positioning.** Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a run in May 2026, removing a frequently cited top-tier option. Kamala Harris has indicated she is considering another bid, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has gained ground in some surveys and markets, yet neither consistently leads national polling averages or commands majority implied probability in nominee contracts. Leading names in recent aggregates include Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff alongside Harris and Ocasio-Cortez, with no single woman dominating the field. Traders appear to price the absence of additional high-profile female entrants and the competitive positioning of male governors and senators as tilting the nomination toward a man.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,082
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 32% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 32¢, the market collectively assigns a 32% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" is 32% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 32% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.