Michigan voters face an automatic constitutional convention question on the November 3, 2026 ballot under the state’s 1963 constitution, which requires the issue every 16 years. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to rejection, reflecting repeated historical outcomes—voters turned down similar proposals by margins of 67% to 77% in 2010, 1994, and 1978. Organized opposition from coalitions including education, labor, and good-government groups has mobilized to protect existing provisions on redistricting, reproductive rights, and other voter-approved amendments, while support remains limited to a few Republican legislators seeking broader revisions. With the ballot now finalized and no recent polling or events indicating a shift, the pattern of voter caution and active campaigning sustains the strong consensus against convening delegates in 2027. Late developments such as unexpected endorsements or scandals could still alter momentum before Election Day.