Ongoing US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, including recent envoy visits to Moscow in early September 2026, have produced temporary pauses in strikes but no breakthrough on core issues. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas plus formal recognition of annexed territories, permanent NATO neutrality, and limits on Ukrainian forces—demands Kyiv rejects outright in favor of security guarantees and territorial integrity. Prior trilateral rounds earlier in 2026 yielded only prisoner exchanges without resolving these gaps. With entrenched positions, limited recent progress, and under two months until the October 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement materializing in that window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, including recent envoy visits to Moscow in early September 2026, have produced temporary pauses in strikes but no breakthrough on core issues. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas plus formal recognition of annexed territories, permanent NATO neutrality, and limits on Ukrainian forces—demands Kyiv rejects outright in favor of security guarantees and territorial integrity. Prior trilateral rounds earlier in 2026 yielded only prisoner exchanges without resolving these gaps. With entrenched positions, limited recent progress, and under two months until the October 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement materializing in that window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$8,833End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, including recent envoy visits to Moscow in early September 2026, have produced temporary pauses in strikes but no breakthrough on core issues. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas plus formal recognition of annexed territories, permanent NATO neutrality, and limits on Ukrainian forces—demands Kyiv rejects outright in favor of security guarantees and territorial integrity. Prior trilateral rounds earlier in 2026 yielded only prisoner exchanges without resolving these gaps. With entrenched positions, limited recent progress, and under two months until the October 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement materializing in that window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,833End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, including recent envoy visits to Moscow in early September 2026, have produced temporary pauses in strikes but no breakthrough on core issues. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas plus formal recognition of annexed territories, permanent NATO neutrality, and limits on Ukrainian forces—demands Kyiv rejects outright in favor of security guarantees and territorial integrity. Prior trilateral rounds earlier in 2026 yielded only prisoner exchanges without resolving these gaps. With entrenched positions, limited recent progress, and under two months until the October 31 deadline, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement materializing in that window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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