Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?
Tech·Big Tech

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

icon for Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?
Tech·Big Tech

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

Up

88% chance
Polymarket

$25,972 Vol.

Up

88% chance
Polymarket

$25,972 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Tech companies have announced over 170,000 layoffs through early September 2026, already surpassing 2025’s full-year pace in Silicon Valley and running 66-83% above prior-year levels industry-wide. Major firms including Oracle, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel have explicitly tied reductions to artificial intelligence initiatives, reallocating resources from traditional roles toward model development, infrastructure, and efficiency gains amid record capital expenditures. Recent actions such as Uber’s 10% workforce cut and ongoing Bay Area notifications reinforce the trend of profitable platforms streamlining amid AI adoption. Traders see these structural shifts and sustained monthly volumes as evidence that total 2026 tech layoffs will exceed the prior year.

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).

This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.

If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.

Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.

This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).

Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$25,972
End Date
Feb 28, 2027
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 2:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Tech companies have announced over 170,000 layoffs through early September 2026, already surpassing 2025’s full-year pace in Silicon Valley and running 66-83% above prior-year levels industry-wide. Major firms including Oracle, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel have explicitly tied reductions to artificial intelligence initiatives, reallocating resources from traditional roles toward model development, infrastructure, and efficiency gains amid record capital expenditures. Recent actions such as Uber’s 10% workforce cut and ongoing Bay Area notifications reinforce the trend of profitable platforms streamlining amid AI adoption. Traders see these structural shifts and sustained monthly volumes as evidence that total 2026 tech layoffs will exceed the prior year.

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).

This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.

If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.

Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.

This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).

Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$25,972
End Date
Feb 28, 2027
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 2:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

10%
icon for Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?

Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?

27%
icon for Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

36%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?'s price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 89% for "Up." A price of 89% means the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?" has generated $26K in total trading volume. Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? Up or Down markets attract active traders reacting to live price movements in real time — this level of activity helps ensure the current Up/Down odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live prices and place a trade directly on this page.

To trade on "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?," decide whether you believe Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?'s price at noon ET on February 27 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?'s price at noon ET on March 20. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?" is 89% for "Up," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 89% chance that Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?'s price will finish up over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?" market resolves based on a comparison of Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?'s price at noon ET on February 27 versus noon ET on March 20, using Binance TECH-LAYOFFS/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the February 27 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.