The open-seat nature of New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, following Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas’s decision to run for Senate, anchors trader consensus around an 86.5% chance of a Democratic victory. The district’s recent House results and forecaster ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify it as Likely or Lean Democratic, even after Donald Trump carried it by 3.5 points in 2024. A crowded Democratic primary on September 8 features well-funded candidates such as Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan, while the Republican field led by Anthony DiLorenzo remains less tested in the general electorate. These structural and candidate factors have sustained the wide gap in implied probabilities with little movement in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNH-01 House Election Winner
NH-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,910 Vol.
86%
Republican Party
$3,096 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat nature of New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, following Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas’s decision to run for Senate, anchors trader consensus around an 86.5% chance of a Democratic victory. The district’s recent House results and forecaster ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify it as Likely or Lean Democratic, even after Donald Trump carried it by 3.5 points in 2024. A crowded Democratic primary on September 8 features well-funded candidates such as Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan, while the Republican field led by Anthony DiLorenzo remains less tested in the general electorate. These structural and candidate factors have sustained the wide gap in implied probabilities with little movement in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$9,007End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open-seat nature of New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, following Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas’s decision to run for Senate, anchors trader consensus around an 86.5% chance of a Democratic victory. The district’s recent House results and forecaster ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify it as Likely or Lean Democratic, even after Donald Trump carried it by 3.5 points in 2024. A crowded Democratic primary on September 8 features well-funded candidates such as Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan, while the Republican field led by Anthony DiLorenzo remains less tested in the general electorate. These structural and candidate factors have sustained the wide gap in implied probabilities with little movement in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,007End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open-seat nature of New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, following Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas’s decision to run for Senate, anchors trader consensus around an 86.5% chance of a Democratic victory. The district’s recent House results and forecaster ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify it as Likely or Lean Democratic, even after Donald Trump carried it by 3.5 points in 2024. A crowded Democratic primary on September 8 features well-funded candidates such as Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan, while the Republican field led by Anthony DiLorenzo remains less tested in the general electorate. These structural and candidate factors have sustained the wide gap in implied probabilities with little movement in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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