Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democratic nominee Cliff Johnson and Libertarian Johnny Baucom in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles underpin the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory. Kelly ran unopposed in the March primary while Johnson secured the Democratic nomination earlier that month, with no subsequent polling or campaign events altering the outlook. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. A late-cycle scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties could narrow the margin, though structural factors and historical voting patterns continue to anchor expectations for the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMS-01 House Election Winner
MS-01 House Election Winner
$117,455 Vol.
$117,455 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
4%
$117,455 Vol.
$117,455 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$85,217 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$32,239 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democratic nominee Cliff Johnson and Libertarian Johnny Baucom in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles underpin the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory. Kelly ran unopposed in the March primary while Johnson secured the Democratic nomination earlier that month, with no subsequent polling or campaign events altering the outlook. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. A late-cycle scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties could narrow the margin, though structural factors and historical voting patterns continue to anchor expectations for the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$117,455End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democratic nominee Cliff Johnson and Libertarian Johnny Baucom in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles underpin the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory. Kelly ran unopposed in the March primary while Johnson secured the Democratic nomination earlier that month, with no subsequent polling or campaign events altering the outlook. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. A late-cycle scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties could narrow the margin, though structural factors and historical voting patterns continue to anchor expectations for the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$117,455End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democratic nominee Cliff Johnson and Libertarian Johnny Baucom in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles underpin the 94.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory. Kelly ran unopposed in the March primary while Johnson secured the Democratic nomination earlier that month, with no subsequent polling or campaign events altering the outlook. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. A late-cycle scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key counties could narrow the margin, though structural factors and historical voting patterns continue to anchor expectations for the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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