Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Angie Craig by roughly 20 points in the August 11 primary, consolidating support from the party’s progressive base and earning the endorsement of retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and recent generic ballot polling has shown Democrats ahead by 8 points. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, who won her primary with 52 percent, faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats have dominated statewide races for two decades. Trader pricing at 93.5 percent for Flanagan reflects this entrenched partisan pattern and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A significant scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$59,334 Vol.
$59,334 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
94%
Michele Tafoya (R)
8%
$59,334 Vol.
$59,334 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Peggy Flanagan (D)
$41,463 Vol.
94%
Michele Tafoya (R)
$17,871 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Angie Craig by roughly 20 points in the August 11 primary, consolidating support from the party’s progressive base and earning the endorsement of retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and recent generic ballot polling has shown Democrats ahead by 8 points. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, who won her primary with 52 percent, faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats have dominated statewide races for two decades. Trader pricing at 93.5 percent for Flanagan reflects this entrenched partisan pattern and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A significant scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$59,334End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Angie Craig by roughly 20 points in the August 11 primary, consolidating support from the party’s progressive base and earning the endorsement of retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and recent generic ballot polling has shown Democrats ahead by 8 points. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, who won her primary with 52 percent, faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats have dominated statewide races for two decades. Trader pricing at 93.5 percent for Flanagan reflects this entrenched partisan pattern and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A significant scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$59,334End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Angie Craig by roughly 20 points in the August 11 primary, consolidating support from the party’s progressive base and earning the endorsement of retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and recent generic ballot polling has shown Democrats ahead by 8 points. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, who won her primary with 52 percent, faces structural headwinds in a state where Democrats have dominated statewide races for two decades. Trader pricing at 93.5 percent for Flanagan reflects this entrenched partisan pattern and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions. A significant scandal, health event, or sharp national political shift could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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