**With the strongest 2026 earthquake so far measured at magnitude 7.8 by USGS catalogs, traders heavily favor 7.9 or below (74.5% implied probability) for the year’s peak.** Two M7.8 events—one offshore Mindanao in June and another in Indonesia’s Flores region in August—along with multiple M7.5–7.7 shocks have defined activity, while no M8.0+ has occurred despite typical global rates of roughly one such event annually. Subduction-zone faults can generate far larger ruptures, yet current patterns, including aftershock sequences and stress release in active regions like the Philippines and Indonesia, have not escalated further. With four months remaining, the low probabilities assigned to 8.2+ (under 10% combined) reflect both historical rarity of extreme events and the absence of precursors indicating imminent megathrust failure. USGS monitoring and model updates through year-end will provide the decisive data on whether activity shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 13%
8.2 – 8.3 11.6%
8.6 – 8.7 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
75%
8.0 – 8.1
13%
8.2 – 8.3
12%
8.4 – 8.5
2%
8.6 – 8.7
4%
8.8 – 8.9
2%
9.0 or above
2%
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 13%
8.2 – 8.3 11.6%
8.6 – 8.7 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$2,078 Vol.
75%
8.0 – 8.1
$169 Vol.
13%
8.2 – 8.3
$251 Vol.
12%
8.4 – 8.5
$166 Vol.
2%
8.6 – 8.7
$271 Vol.
4%
8.8 – 8.9
$128 Vol.
2%
9.0 or above
$121 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**With the strongest 2026 earthquake so far measured at magnitude 7.8 by USGS catalogs, traders heavily favor 7.9 or below (74.5% implied probability) for the year’s peak.** Two M7.8 events—one offshore Mindanao in June and another in Indonesia’s Flores region in August—along with multiple M7.5–7.7 shocks have defined activity, while no M8.0+ has occurred despite typical global rates of roughly one such event annually. Subduction-zone faults can generate far larger ruptures, yet current patterns, including aftershock sequences and stress release in active regions like the Philippines and Indonesia, have not escalated further. With four months remaining, the low probabilities assigned to 8.2+ (under 10% combined) reflect both historical rarity of extreme events and the absence of precursors indicating imminent megathrust failure. USGS monitoring and model updates through year-end will provide the decisive data on whether activity shifts.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$3,183End Date
Jan 4, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**With the strongest 2026 earthquake so far measured at magnitude 7.8 by USGS catalogs, traders heavily favor 7.9 or below (74.5% implied probability) for the year’s peak.** Two M7.8 events—one offshore Mindanao in June and another in Indonesia’s Flores region in August—along with multiple M7.5–7.7 shocks have defined activity, while no M8.0+ has occurred despite typical global rates of roughly one such event annually. Subduction-zone faults can generate far larger ruptures, yet current patterns, including aftershock sequences and stress release in active regions like the Philippines and Indonesia, have not escalated further. With four months remaining, the low probabilities assigned to 8.2+ (under 10% combined) reflect both historical rarity of extreme events and the absence of precursors indicating imminent megathrust failure. USGS monitoring and model updates through year-end will provide the decisive data on whether activity shifts.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$3,183End Date
Jan 4, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**With the strongest 2026 earthquake so far measured at magnitude 7.8 by USGS catalogs, traders heavily favor 7.9 or below (74.5% implied probability) for the year’s peak.** Two M7.8 events—one offshore Mindanao in June and another in Indonesia’s Flores region in August—along with multiple M7.5–7.7 shocks have defined activity, while no M8.0+ has occurred despite typical global rates of roughly one such event annually. Subduction-zone faults can generate far larger ruptures, yet current patterns, including aftershock sequences and stress release in active regions like the Philippines and Indonesia, have not escalated further. With four months remaining, the low probabilities assigned to 8.2+ (under 10% combined) reflect both historical rarity of extreme events and the absence of precursors indicating imminent megathrust failure. USGS monitoring and model updates through year-end will provide the decisive data on whether activity shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions