Incumbent Steve Scalise faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district primary on November 3, 2026, under the state’s majority-vote system. The longtime Republican representative and House majority leader competes against one Democratic challenger, one additional Republican, and one unaffiliated candidate in a district rated solidly Republican by multiple forecasters. Scalise’s substantial fundraising advantage, prior 66.8 percent general-election performance, and the district’s partisan composition reduce the likelihood that vote splitting prevents an outright majority. Traders assign a 95 percent implied probability to an outright first-round winner because no recent developments—such as candidate withdrawals, new polling shifts, or legal changes—have altered expectations that the primary will conclude without a December runoff.