Recent U.S. data show headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 with core at 2.5%, while August payrolls rose a solid 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%. These readings, alongside energy-driven inflation pressures tied to supply shocks, underpin the Fed’s data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh and support the 67.5% market-implied odds of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Hawkish elements in the June dot plot, with nine officials seeing at least one 2026 hike, sustain the 27.5% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, though recent moderation in core measures and the absence of fresh acceleration temper expectations for aggressive tightening. The September 11 CPI release and September FOMC outcome remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the October decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 4.0%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,277,202 Vol.
$1,277,202 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
28%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 4.0%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,277,202 Vol.
$1,277,202 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$208,127 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$485,977 Vol.
4%
No change
$215,220 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$217,212 Vol.
28%
50+ bps increase
$150,665 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. data show headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 with core at 2.5%, while August payrolls rose a solid 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%. These readings, alongside energy-driven inflation pressures tied to supply shocks, underpin the Fed’s data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh and support the 67.5% market-implied odds of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Hawkish elements in the June dot plot, with nine officials seeing at least one 2026 hike, sustain the 27.5% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, though recent moderation in core measures and the absence of fresh acceleration temper expectations for aggressive tightening. The September 11 CPI release and September FOMC outcome remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,277,202End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. data show headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 with core at 2.5%, while August payrolls rose a solid 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%. These readings, alongside energy-driven inflation pressures tied to supply shocks, underpin the Fed’s data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh and support the 67.5% market-implied odds of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Hawkish elements in the June dot plot, with nine officials seeing at least one 2026 hike, sustain the 27.5% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, though recent moderation in core measures and the absence of fresh acceleration temper expectations for aggressive tightening. The September 11 CPI release and September FOMC outcome remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,277,202End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. data show headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 with core at 2.5%, while August payrolls rose a solid 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%. These readings, alongside energy-driven inflation pressures tied to supply shocks, underpin the Fed’s data-dependent stance under Chair Warsh and support the 67.5% market-implied odds of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Hawkish elements in the June dot plot, with nine officials seeing at least one 2026 hike, sustain the 27.5% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, though recent moderation in core measures and the absence of fresh acceleration temper expectations for aggressive tightening. The September 11 CPI release and September FOMC outcome remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities ahead of the October decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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