The ECB's June 2026 25 basis point hike to a 2.25% deposit rate, followed by a July hold amid Middle East-driven energy shocks, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the year and core at 2.5%, well above the 2% target, with growth revised lower to 0.8%. Traders see further tightening risks priced into autumn meetings, consistent with data-dependent guidance and elevated short-term inflation expectations. A rapid de-escalation in energy prices or sharper growth slowdown could reopen easing discussions, though current trajectories favor sustained or higher rates through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$31,875 Vol.
$31,875 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$31,875 Vol.
$31,875 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's June 2026 25 basis point hike to a 2.25% deposit rate, followed by a July hold amid Middle East-driven energy shocks, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the year and core at 2.5%, well above the 2% target, with growth revised lower to 0.8%. Traders see further tightening risks priced into autumn meetings, consistent with data-dependent guidance and elevated short-term inflation expectations. A rapid de-escalation in energy prices or sharper growth slowdown could reopen easing discussions, though current trajectories favor sustained or higher rates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,875End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's June 2026 25 basis point hike to a 2.25% deposit rate, followed by a July hold amid Middle East-driven energy shocks, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the year and core at 2.5%, well above the 2% target, with growth revised lower to 0.8%. Traders see further tightening risks priced into autumn meetings, consistent with data-dependent guidance and elevated short-term inflation expectations. A rapid de-escalation in energy prices or sharper growth slowdown could reopen easing discussions, though current trajectories favor sustained or higher rates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,875End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ECB's June 2026 25 basis point hike to a 2.25% deposit rate, followed by a July hold amid Middle East-driven energy shocks, underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% for the year and core at 2.5%, well above the 2% target, with growth revised lower to 0.8%. Traders see further tightening risks priced into autumn meetings, consistent with data-dependent guidance and elevated short-term inflation expectations. A rapid de-escalation in energy prices or sharper growth slowdown could reopen easing discussions, though current trajectories favor sustained or higher rates through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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