Becerra, the Democratic nominee and former state attorney general and HHS secretary, holds a consistent polling edge of roughly 18-25 points over Republican Steve Hilton in the November general election for California's open governorship. Recent surveys from Berkeley IGS and PPIC show Becerra at 55-61% support among likely voters, reflecting the state's strong Democratic lean and consolidated party backing after the June top-two primary. Traders appear to price the exact victory margin as uncertain due to variables like turnout among independents, voter priorities on housing affordability and homelessness, and any late shifts tied to federal policy interactions. This keeps multiple margin brackets competitive even as Hilton's win probability remains low. No major new developments have altered the race's trajectory in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBecerra 40%+ 24%
Becerra 15-20% 20%
Becerra 10-15% 20%
Becerra 30-35% 20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
24%
Becerra 35-40%
6%
Becerra 30-35%
20%
Becerra 25-30%
7%
Becerra 20-25%
18%
Becerra 15-20%
13%
Becerra 10-15%
20%
Becerra 0-10%
13%
Hilton Wins
20%
Becerra 40%+ 24%
Becerra 15-20% 20%
Becerra 10-15% 20%
Becerra 30-35% 20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
$56 Vol.
24%
Becerra 35-40%
$41 Vol.
6%
Becerra 30-35%
$32 Vol.
20%
Becerra 25-30%
$32 Vol.
7%
Becerra 20-25%
$41 Vol.
18%
Becerra 15-20%
$51 Vol.
13%
Becerra 10-15%
$46 Vol.
20%
Becerra 0-10%
$36 Vol.
13%
Hilton Wins
$41 Vol.
20%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra, the Democratic nominee and former state attorney general and HHS secretary, holds a consistent polling edge of roughly 18-25 points over Republican Steve Hilton in the November general election for California's open governorship. Recent surveys from Berkeley IGS and PPIC show Becerra at 55-61% support among likely voters, reflecting the state's strong Democratic lean and consolidated party backing after the June top-two primary. Traders appear to price the exact victory margin as uncertain due to variables like turnout among independents, voter priorities on housing affordability and homelessness, and any late shifts tied to federal policy interactions. This keeps multiple margin brackets competitive even as Hilton's win probability remains low. No major new developments have altered the race's trajectory in recent weeks.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Volume
$376End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra, the Democratic nominee and former state attorney general and HHS secretary, holds a consistent polling edge of roughly 18-25 points over Republican Steve Hilton in the November general election for California's open governorship. Recent surveys from Berkeley IGS and PPIC show Becerra at 55-61% support among likely voters, reflecting the state's strong Democratic lean and consolidated party backing after the June top-two primary. Traders appear to price the exact victory margin as uncertain due to variables like turnout among independents, voter priorities on housing affordability and homelessness, and any late shifts tied to federal policy interactions. This keeps multiple margin brackets competitive even as Hilton's win probability remains low. No major new developments have altered the race's trajectory in recent weeks.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$376End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Becerra, the Democratic nominee and former state attorney general and HHS secretary, holds a consistent polling edge of roughly 18-25 points over Republican Steve Hilton in the November general election for California's open governorship. Recent surveys from Berkeley IGS and PPIC show Becerra at 55-61% support among likely voters, reflecting the state's strong Democratic lean and consolidated party backing after the June top-two primary. Traders appear to price the exact victory margin as uncertain due to variables like turnout among independents, voter priorities on housing affordability and homelessness, and any late shifts tied to federal policy interactions. This keeps multiple margin brackets competitive even as Hilton's win probability remains low. No major new developments have altered the race's trajectory in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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