Becerra holds a consistent double-digit lead over Hilton in recent polling averages from sources like Berkeley IGS and PPIC, reflecting California's strong Democratic voter base and the open-seat dynamics after Newsom's term limit, which consolidated support behind the former attorney general and HHS secretary following the June primary. Trader pricing on margins remains dispersed across 10-40% ranges for Becerra because of uncertainty around turnout among no-party-preference voters, economic pressures like housing costs and taxes that could boost Hilton's appeal in certain regions, and the impact of late endorsements or campaign spending. Hilton's path to a narrower loss or upset depends on consolidating Republican support and driving higher participation in swing areas, while Becerra's performance hinges on maintaining broad coalition turnout through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBecerra 35-40% 30%
Becerra 40%+ 25%
Becerra 10-15% 20%
Becerra 20-25% 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
25%
Becerra 35-40%
30%
Becerra 30-35%
12%
Becerra 25-30%
11%
Becerra 20-25%
18%
Becerra 15-20%
12%
Becerra 10-15%
20%
Becerra 0-10%
11%
Hilton Wins
17%
Becerra 35-40% 30%
Becerra 40%+ 25%
Becerra 10-15% 20%
Becerra 20-25% 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
$56 Vol.
25%
Becerra 35-40%
$41 Vol.
30%
Becerra 30-35%
$32 Vol.
12%
Becerra 25-30%
$32 Vol.
11%
Becerra 20-25%
$41 Vol.
18%
Becerra 15-20%
$51 Vol.
12%
Becerra 10-15%
$46 Vol.
20%
Becerra 0-10%
$36 Vol.
11%
Hilton Wins
$41 Vol.
17%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra holds a consistent double-digit lead over Hilton in recent polling averages from sources like Berkeley IGS and PPIC, reflecting California's strong Democratic voter base and the open-seat dynamics after Newsom's term limit, which consolidated support behind the former attorney general and HHS secretary following the June primary. Trader pricing on margins remains dispersed across 10-40% ranges for Becerra because of uncertainty around turnout among no-party-preference voters, economic pressures like housing costs and taxes that could boost Hilton's appeal in certain regions, and the impact of late endorsements or campaign spending. Hilton's path to a narrower loss or upset depends on consolidating Republican support and driving higher participation in swing areas, while Becerra's performance hinges on maintaining broad coalition turnout through November.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Volume
$376End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra holds a consistent double-digit lead over Hilton in recent polling averages from sources like Berkeley IGS and PPIC, reflecting California's strong Democratic voter base and the open-seat dynamics after Newsom's term limit, which consolidated support behind the former attorney general and HHS secretary following the June primary. Trader pricing on margins remains dispersed across 10-40% ranges for Becerra because of uncertainty around turnout among no-party-preference voters, economic pressures like housing costs and taxes that could boost Hilton's appeal in certain regions, and the impact of late endorsements or campaign spending. Hilton's path to a narrower loss or upset depends on consolidating Republican support and driving higher participation in swing areas, while Becerra's performance hinges on maintaining broad coalition turnout through November.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$376End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Becerra holds a consistent double-digit lead over Hilton in recent polling averages from sources like Berkeley IGS and PPIC, reflecting California's strong Democratic voter base and the open-seat dynamics after Newsom's term limit, which consolidated support behind the former attorney general and HHS secretary following the June primary. Trader pricing on margins remains dispersed across 10-40% ranges for Becerra because of uncertainty around turnout among no-party-preference voters, economic pressures like housing costs and taxes that could boost Hilton's appeal in certain regions, and the impact of late endorsements or campaign spending. Hilton's path to a narrower loss or upset depends on consolidating Republican support and driving higher participation in swing areas, while Becerra's performance hinges on maintaining broad coalition turnout through November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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