Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong edge in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District heading into the November general election, driven by consistent polling leads and robust fundraising. Recent surveys, including a June Normington Petts poll, showed her ahead of Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani by narrow margins around 47% to 45%, with undecided voters and favorability gaps working against the incumbent. Both candidates cleared their July 21 primaries without opposition, allowing Mendoza to consolidate support early while Ciscomani faces a competitive swing district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by forecasters. Mendoza’s substantial campaign resources and the district’s recent voting patterns in statewide contests have shaped trader consensus around these probabilities, though the race remains sensitive to turnout and late-cycle developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-06 House Election Winner
AZ-06 House Election Winner
$11,580 Vol.
$11,580 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
83%
Republican Party
18%
$11,580 Vol.
$11,580 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,889 Vol.
83%
Republican Party
$7,690 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong edge in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District heading into the November general election, driven by consistent polling leads and robust fundraising. Recent surveys, including a June Normington Petts poll, showed her ahead of Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani by narrow margins around 47% to 45%, with undecided voters and favorability gaps working against the incumbent. Both candidates cleared their July 21 primaries without opposition, allowing Mendoza to consolidate support early while Ciscomani faces a competitive swing district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by forecasters. Mendoza’s substantial campaign resources and the district’s recent voting patterns in statewide contests have shaped trader consensus around these probabilities, though the race remains sensitive to turnout and late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$11,580End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong edge in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District heading into the November general election, driven by consistent polling leads and robust fundraising. Recent surveys, including a June Normington Petts poll, showed her ahead of Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani by narrow margins around 47% to 45%, with undecided voters and favorability gaps working against the incumbent. Both candidates cleared their July 21 primaries without opposition, allowing Mendoza to consolidate support early while Ciscomani faces a competitive swing district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by forecasters. Mendoza’s substantial campaign resources and the district’s recent voting patterns in statewide contests have shaped trader consensus around these probabilities, though the race remains sensitive to turnout and late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,580End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic nominee JoAnna Mendoza holds a strong edge in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District heading into the November general election, driven by consistent polling leads and robust fundraising. Recent surveys, including a June Normington Petts poll, showed her ahead of Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani by narrow margins around 47% to 45%, with undecided voters and favorability gaps working against the incumbent. Both candidates cleared their July 21 primaries without opposition, allowing Mendoza to consolidate support early while Ciscomani faces a competitive swing district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by forecasters. Mendoza’s substantial campaign resources and the district’s recent voting patterns in statewide contests have shaped trader consensus around these probabilities, though the race remains sensitive to turnout and late-cycle developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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