Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Geopolitics·China

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Geopolitics·China

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Oct 1

Dec 31

Jul 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

Oct 1

Dec 31

Jul 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2028

9% chance
Polymarket

$433,096 Vol.

9% chance
Polymarket

$433,096 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s military leadership purges in early and mid-2026, including the removal of senior Central Military Commission figures, have disrupted command structures and operational readiness needed for a complex amphibious campaign against Taiwan. Official assessments and defense reports note persistent shortfalls in amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint landing capabilities, with Beijing instead emphasizing gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, ADIZ incursions, and blockade rehearsals. These developments, alongside Taiwan’s asymmetric defense enhancements and continued U.S. and allied deterrence measures, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$433,096
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s military leadership purges in early and mid-2026, including the removal of senior Central Military Commission figures, have disrupted command structures and operational readiness needed for a complex amphibious campaign against Taiwan. Official assessments and defense reports note persistent shortfalls in amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint landing capabilities, with Beijing instead emphasizing gray-zone coercion such as coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, ADIZ incursions, and blockade rehearsals. These developments, alongside Taiwan’s asymmetric defense enhancements and continued U.S. and allied deterrence measures, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% probability assigned to no invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$433,096
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

12%
icon for Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%
icon for Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

3%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" has generated $433.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.