The extended procedural timeline in the ICJ's South Africa v. Israel case under the Genocide Convention drives trader expectations that no final ruling finding genocide will occur by the end of 2027. In May 2026 the Court directed a second round of written pleadings after Israel's March 2026 counter-memorial, setting South Africa's reply for November 2027 and Israel's rejoinder for May 2029 while reserving further steps. This schedule follows earlier extensions and multiple provisional measures orders, with the case still in its initial merits phase and no hearings on jurisdiction or substance scheduled before late 2027. Comparable ICJ genocide proceedings have historically required several additional years for a judgment on the merits, making a definitive determination of state responsibility or individual liability within the market window improbable absent an unforeseen acceleration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
$99,447 Vol.
$99,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
13% chance
$99,447 Vol.
$99,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The extended procedural timeline in the ICJ's South Africa v. Israel case under the Genocide Convention drives trader expectations that no final ruling finding genocide will occur by the end of 2027. In May 2026 the Court directed a second round of written pleadings after Israel's March 2026 counter-memorial, setting South Africa's reply for November 2027 and Israel's rejoinder for May 2029 while reserving further steps. This schedule follows earlier extensions and multiple provisional measures orders, with the case still in its initial merits phase and no hearings on jurisdiction or substance scheduled before late 2027. Comparable ICJ genocide proceedings have historically required several additional years for a judgment on the merits, making a definitive determination of state responsibility or individual liability within the market window improbable absent an unforeseen acceleration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,447End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The extended procedural timeline in the ICJ's South Africa v. Israel case under the Genocide Convention drives trader expectations that no final ruling finding genocide will occur by the end of 2027. In May 2026 the Court directed a second round of written pleadings after Israel's March 2026 counter-memorial, setting South Africa's reply for November 2027 and Israel's rejoinder for May 2029 while reserving further steps. This schedule follows earlier extensions and multiple provisional measures orders, with the case still in its initial merits phase and no hearings on jurisdiction or substance scheduled before late 2027. Comparable ICJ genocide proceedings have historically required several additional years for a judgment on the merits, making a definitive determination of state responsibility or individual liability within the market window improbable absent an unforeseen acceleration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,447End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extended procedural timeline in the ICJ's South Africa v. Israel case under the Genocide Convention drives trader expectations that no final ruling finding genocide will occur by the end of 2027. In May 2026 the Court directed a second round of written pleadings after Israel's March 2026 counter-memorial, setting South Africa's reply for November 2027 and Israel's rejoinder for May 2029 while reserving further steps. This schedule follows earlier extensions and multiple provisional measures orders, with the case still in its initial merits phase and no hearings on jurisdiction or substance scheduled before late 2027. Comparable ICJ genocide proceedings have historically required several additional years for a judgment on the merits, making a definitive determination of state responsibility or individual liability within the market window improbable absent an unforeseen acceleration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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