**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** has delivered an industry-defining domestic run since its record $360 million opening weekend in late July, crossing $900 million in just 36 days—the fastest pace ever—and remaining the top film into its sixth weekend. Current projections from Box Office Watch and trade models center final totals between roughly $907 million and $982 million, with the bulk of remaining earnings expected through Labor Day and the immediate weeks afterward before typical post-summer decay accelerates. Traders have priced the 940–960 million band at 96 percent combined implied probability because the film’s strong holds and lack of major September competition support steady additions through the end of the month, while historical superhero legs and the back-to-school calendar make outsized upside or sub-940 million outcomes far less likely. The next key catalysts are the Labor Day frame and subsequent weekend updates, which will clarify whether the film challenges the all-time domestic record before September 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
940 - 950m 72%
950 - 960m 25%
<940m 4.5%
970m+ 1.6%
$189,068 Vol.
$189,068 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<940m
5%
940 - 950m
72%
950 - 960m
25%
960 - 970m
1%
970m+
2%
940 - 950m 72%
950 - 960m 25%
<940m 4.5%
970m+ 1.6%
$189,068 Vol.
$189,068 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<940m
$68,910 Vol.
5%
940 - 950m
$40,061 Vol.
72%
950 - 960m
$41,645 Vol.
25%
960 - 970m
$18,678 Vol.
1%
970m+
$19,774 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** has delivered an industry-defining domestic run since its record $360 million opening weekend in late July, crossing $900 million in just 36 days—the fastest pace ever—and remaining the top film into its sixth weekend. Current projections from Box Office Watch and trade models center final totals between roughly $907 million and $982 million, with the bulk of remaining earnings expected through Labor Day and the immediate weeks afterward before typical post-summer decay accelerates. Traders have priced the 940–960 million band at 96 percent combined implied probability because the film’s strong holds and lack of major September competition support steady additions through the end of the month, while historical superhero legs and the back-to-school calendar make outsized upside or sub-940 million outcomes far less likely. The next key catalysts are the Labor Day frame and subsequent weekend updates, which will clarify whether the film challenges the all-time domestic record before September 30.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$189,068End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** has delivered an industry-defining domestic run since its record $360 million opening weekend in late July, crossing $900 million in just 36 days—the fastest pace ever—and remaining the top film into its sixth weekend. Current projections from Box Office Watch and trade models center final totals between roughly $907 million and $982 million, with the bulk of remaining earnings expected through Labor Day and the immediate weeks afterward before typical post-summer decay accelerates. Traders have priced the 940–960 million band at 96 percent combined implied probability because the film’s strong holds and lack of major September competition support steady additions through the end of the month, while historical superhero legs and the back-to-school calendar make outsized upside or sub-940 million outcomes far less likely. The next key catalysts are the Labor Day frame and subsequent weekend updates, which will clarify whether the film challenges the all-time domestic record before September 30.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$189,068End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** has delivered an industry-defining domestic run since its record $360 million opening weekend in late July, crossing $900 million in just 36 days—the fastest pace ever—and remaining the top film into its sixth weekend. Current projections from Box Office Watch and trade models center final totals between roughly $907 million and $982 million, with the bulk of remaining earnings expected through Labor Day and the immediate weeks afterward before typical post-summer decay accelerates. Traders have priced the 940–960 million band at 96 percent combined implied probability because the film’s strong holds and lack of major September competition support steady additions through the end of the month, while historical superhero legs and the back-to-school calendar make outsized upside or sub-940 million outcomes far less likely. The next key catalysts are the Labor Day frame and subsequent weekend updates, which will clarify whether the film challenges the all-time domestic record before September 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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