**The most recent parliamentary by-election occurred in Clacton on 13 August 2026, following Nigel Farage’s resignation amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared gifts; Reform UK held the seat in a contest boycotted by major parties.** On 1 September 2026, former Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned as MP for Holborn and St Pancras to focus on international affairs after stepping down as Labour leader, directly triggering the next vacancy. By convention, the party holding the seat moves the writ to set the timetable, typically 21–27 working days later. Trader attention centers on whether additional resignations—such as those tied to health, career moves, or party pressures—could intervene before this poll, alongside procedural factors like whip coordination and any scheduled Commons motions. Local council by-elections continue routinely but do not affect the Westminster timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,976 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
83%
December 31
99%
$14,976 Vol.
September 30
$10,836 Vol.
83%
December 31
$4,141 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The most recent parliamentary by-election occurred in Clacton on 13 August 2026, following Nigel Farage’s resignation amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared gifts; Reform UK held the seat in a contest boycotted by major parties.**
On 1 September 2026, former Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned as MP for Holborn and St Pancras to focus on international affairs after stepping down as Labour leader, directly triggering the next vacancy. By convention, the party holding the seat moves the writ to set the timetable, typically 21–27 working days later. Trader attention centers on whether additional resignations—such as those tied to health, career moves, or party pressures—could intervene before this poll, alongside procedural factors like whip coordination and any scheduled Commons motions. Local council by-elections continue routinely but do not affect the Westminster timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$14,976End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**The most recent parliamentary by-election occurred in Clacton on 13 August 2026, following Nigel Farage’s resignation amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared gifts; Reform UK held the seat in a contest boycotted by major parties.**
On 1 September 2026, former Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned as MP for Holborn and St Pancras to focus on international affairs after stepping down as Labour leader, directly triggering the next vacancy. By convention, the party holding the seat moves the writ to set the timetable, typically 21–27 working days later. Trader attention centers on whether additional resignations—such as those tied to health, career moves, or party pressures—could intervene before this poll, alongside procedural factors like whip coordination and any scheduled Commons motions. Local council by-elections continue routinely but do not affect the Westminster timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$14,976End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The most recent parliamentary by-election occurred in Clacton on 13 August 2026, following Nigel Farage’s resignation amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared gifts; Reform UK held the seat in a contest boycotted by major parties.** On 1 September 2026, former Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned as MP for Holborn and St Pancras to focus on international affairs after stepping down as Labour leader, directly triggering the next vacancy. By convention, the party holding the seat moves the writ to set the timetable, typically 21–27 working days later. Trader attention centers on whether additional resignations—such as those tied to health, career moves, or party pressures—could intervene before this poll, alongside procedural factors like whip coordination and any scheduled Commons motions. Local council by-elections continue routinely but do not affect the Westminster timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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