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icon for Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?
Politics·Nigel Farage

Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?

icon for Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?
Politics·Nigel Farage

Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?

37% chance
Polymarket
NEW
37% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify. The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Nigel Farage regained the Clacton seat for Reform UK in the August 2026 by-election he triggered through his July resignation, securing 63% of the vote against a field of novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest. The parliamentary standards investigation into his undeclared financial interests, paused during the vacancy, resumed immediately after his victory. Any breach finding could lead to suspension and a recall petition process, but parliamentary timelines, committee procedures, and historical precedent for such cases make completion and a further vacancy improbable before year-end. Conservative statements on contingency planning reflect awareness of this risk without indicating imminent action. Trader consensus on no additional by-election in 2026 aligns with the extended procedural path ahead.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify. The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify. The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Nigel Farage regained the Clacton seat for Reform UK in the August 2026 by-election he triggered through his July resignation, securing 63% of the vote against a field of novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest. The parliamentary standards investigation into his undeclared financial interests, paused during the vacancy, resumed immediately after his victory. Any breach finding could lead to suspension and a recall petition process, but parliamentary timelines, committee procedures, and historical precedent for such cases make completion and a further vacancy improbable before year-end. Conservative statements on contingency planning reflect awareness of this risk without indicating imminent action. Trader consensus on no additional by-election in 2026 aligns with the extended procedural path ahead.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify. The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 37% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 37¢, the market collectively assigns a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?" is 37% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.