South Korea’s Democratic Party of Korea holds 161 of 300 National Assembly seats, far short of the two-thirds supermajority (200 votes) required to pass an impeachment motion against President Lee Jae-myung. A June 2026 citizen petition citing suspended criminal cases reached over 100,000 signatures but stalled in committee under the ruling party’s control. Lee’s approval rating has declined into the low-to-mid 40s amid economic pressures and local-election ballot issues, yet no cross-party defections or legislative momentum have emerged to overcome the arithmetic barrier. Ongoing trials remain paused under constitutional immunity provisions, and recent cabinet and justice-minister developments have not altered assembly dynamics. Traders therefore assign roughly 94 percent probability that no impeachment occurs before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
6% chance
$21,729 Vol.
$21,729 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$21,729 Vol.
$21,729 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.South Korea’s Democratic Party of Korea holds 161 of 300 National Assembly seats, far short of the two-thirds supermajority (200 votes) required to pass an impeachment motion against President Lee Jae-myung. A June 2026 citizen petition citing suspended criminal cases reached over 100,000 signatures but stalled in committee under the ruling party’s control. Lee’s approval rating has declined into the low-to-mid 40s amid economic pressures and local-election ballot issues, yet no cross-party defections or legislative momentum have emerged to overcome the arithmetic barrier. Ongoing trials remain paused under constitutional immunity provisions, and recent cabinet and justice-minister developments have not altered assembly dynamics. Traders therefore assign roughly 94 percent probability that no impeachment occurs before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$21,729End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.South Korea’s Democratic Party of Korea holds 161 of 300 National Assembly seats, far short of the two-thirds supermajority (200 votes) required to pass an impeachment motion against President Lee Jae-myung. A June 2026 citizen petition citing suspended criminal cases reached over 100,000 signatures but stalled in committee under the ruling party’s control. Lee’s approval rating has declined into the low-to-mid 40s amid economic pressures and local-election ballot issues, yet no cross-party defections or legislative momentum have emerged to overcome the arithmetic barrier. Ongoing trials remain paused under constitutional immunity provisions, and recent cabinet and justice-minister developments have not altered assembly dynamics. Traders therefore assign roughly 94 percent probability that no impeachment occurs before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$21,729End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korea’s Democratic Party of Korea holds 161 of 300 National Assembly seats, far short of the two-thirds supermajority (200 votes) required to pass an impeachment motion against President Lee Jae-myung. A June 2026 citizen petition citing suspended criminal cases reached over 100,000 signatures but stalled in committee under the ruling party’s control. Lee’s approval rating has declined into the low-to-mid 40s amid economic pressures and local-election ballot issues, yet no cross-party defections or legislative momentum have emerged to overcome the arithmetic barrier. Ongoing trials remain paused under constitutional immunity provisions, and recent cabinet and justice-minister developments have not altered assembly dynamics. Traders therefore assign roughly 94 percent probability that no impeachment occurs before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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