**Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions over a U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June 2026.** Israel has conducted targeted airstrikes and drone operations in response to Hezbollah rocket and projectile fire, while retaining positions in an expanded security zone and rejecting full withdrawal without verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of the area south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid, vowed continued resistance, and opposed Lebanese government talks with Israel, leading to periodic violations including strikes on both sides. Recent months have seen low-intensity exchanges rather than high-intensity fighting, with Israeli forces emphasizing defensive postures and rapid responses to threats near the buffer zone. Trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities reflect this pattern of contained incidents, the risk of escalation from any major Hezbollah attack, and the absence of a finalized, fully implemented withdrawal timeline tied to verifiable milestones. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and enforcement of pilot zones for phased redeployment remain key variables that could influence future strike frequency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
$387,057 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
September 3
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September 4
97%
September 5
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September 6
98%
September 7
83%
September 8
60%
September 9
79%
September 10
78%
September 11
81%
September 12
73%
September 13
78%
September 14
80%
September 15
53%
September 16
72%
September 17
47%
September 18
47%
September 19
43%
September 20
48%
September 21
51%
September 22
50%
September 23
50%
September 24
52%
September 25
51%
September 26
47%
September 27
51%
September 28
50%
September 29
49%
September 30
48%
$387,057 Vol.
September 3
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September 4
$627 Vol.
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September 5
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47%
September 6
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September 7
$10,472 Vol.
83%
September 8
$41,640 Vol.
60%
September 9
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79%
September 10
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78%
September 11
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81%
September 12
$28,714 Vol.
73%
September 13
$10,674 Vol.
78%
September 14
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80%
September 15
$0 Vol.
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September 16
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47%
September 18
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September 19
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September 20
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51%
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September 24
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52%
September 25
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51%
September 26
$35,655 Vol.
47%
September 27
$0 Vol.
51%
September 28
$0 Vol.
50%
September 29
$32,937 Vol.
49%
September 30
$29,720 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.**Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions over a U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June 2026.** Israel has conducted targeted airstrikes and drone operations in response to Hezbollah rocket and projectile fire, while retaining positions in an expanded security zone and rejecting full withdrawal without verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of the area south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid, vowed continued resistance, and opposed Lebanese government talks with Israel, leading to periodic violations including strikes on both sides.
Recent months have seen low-intensity exchanges rather than high-intensity fighting, with Israeli forces emphasizing defensive postures and rapid responses to threats near the buffer zone. Trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities reflect this pattern of contained incidents, the risk of escalation from any major Hezbollah attack, and the absence of a finalized, fully implemented withdrawal timeline tied to verifiable milestones. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and enforcement of pilot zones for phased redeployment remain key variables that could influence future strike frequency.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$387,057End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.**Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions over a U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June 2026.** Israel has conducted targeted airstrikes and drone operations in response to Hezbollah rocket and projectile fire, while retaining positions in an expanded security zone and rejecting full withdrawal without verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of the area south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid, vowed continued resistance, and opposed Lebanese government talks with Israel, leading to periodic violations including strikes on both sides.
Recent months have seen low-intensity exchanges rather than high-intensity fighting, with Israeli forces emphasizing defensive postures and rapid responses to threats near the buffer zone. Trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities reflect this pattern of contained incidents, the risk of escalation from any major Hezbollah attack, and the absence of a finalized, fully implemented withdrawal timeline tied to verifiable milestones. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and enforcement of pilot zones for phased redeployment remain key variables that could influence future strike frequency.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$387,057End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions over a U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June 2026.** Israel has conducted targeted airstrikes and drone operations in response to Hezbollah rocket and projectile fire, while retaining positions in an expanded security zone and rejecting full withdrawal without verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of the area south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid, vowed continued resistance, and opposed Lebanese government talks with Israel, leading to periodic violations including strikes on both sides. Recent months have seen low-intensity exchanges rather than high-intensity fighting, with Israeli forces emphasizing defensive postures and rapid responses to threats near the buffer zone. Trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities reflect this pattern of contained incidents, the risk of escalation from any major Hezbollah attack, and the absence of a finalized, fully implemented withdrawal timeline tied to verifiable milestones. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and enforcement of pilot zones for phased redeployment remain key variables that could influence future strike frequency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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