Hu Jintao, now 84, has not made a confirmed public appearance since attending Jiang Zemin’s December 2022 funeral, with consistent absences from subsequent high-profile events including the September 2025 military parade and the August 2026 commemoration of Jiang’s birth centenary. State media and observers have attributed these non-appearances to health considerations tied to his age and prior reports of frailty. This extended pattern, spanning nearly four years amid multiple opportunities for elder statesmen to participate in official proceedings, underpins trader consensus on the low likelihood of an appearance before year-end. A verifiable public sighting would require a marked shift from established practice, such as attendance at a major state ceremony or televised event, though no such development has materialized in recent months.