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Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner
Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

Sagal Abdi-Wali 64%

Zack Polanski 28%

James White 7.1%

Sarah Hayward 4.8%

Polymarket

$15,256 Vol.

Sagal Abdi-Wali 64%

Zack Polanski 28%

James White 7.1%

Sarah Hayward 4.8%

Polymarket

$15,256 Vol.

icon for Sagal Abdi-Wali

Sagal Abdi-Wali

$2,503 Vol.

64%

icon for Zack Polanski

Zack Polanski

$5,816 Vol.

28%

icon for James White

James White

$240 Vol.

7%

icon for Sarah Hayward

Sarah Hayward

$226 Vol.

5%

icon for Richard Olszewski

Richard Olszewski

$253 Vol.

1%

icon for Hamza Chowdhury

Hamza Chowdhury

$253 Vol.

1%

icon for David Stansell

David Stansell

$214 Vol.

1%

icon for Luisa Porritt

Luisa Porritt

$224 Vol.

1%

icon for Gio Spinella

Gio Spinella

$236 Vol.

1%

icon for Adam Harrison

Adam Harrison

$215 Vol.

1%

icon for Tricia Leman

Tricia Leman

$233 Vol.

1%

icon for Lorna Jane Russell

Lorna Jane Russell

$226 Vol.

1%

icon for Pat Callaghan

Pat Callaghan

$233 Vol.

1%

icon for Georgia Gould

Georgia Gould

$775 Vol.

1%

icon for Siân Berry

Siân Berry

$221 Vol.

1%

icon for Mehreen Malik

Mehreen Malik

$233 Vol.

1%

icon for Andrew Feinstein

Andrew Feinstein

$1,705 Vol.

1%

icon for Jim Monahan

Jim Monahan

$233 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Clinton

Charlie Clinton

$233 Vol.

<1%

icon for Keith Moffitt

Keith Moffitt

$283 Vol.

<1%

icon for Oliver Cooper

Oliver Cooper

$233 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Roberts

David Roberts

$233 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sarah Pochin

Sarah Pochin

$233 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Sagal Abdi-Wali leads the market at 65% as the frontrunner for Labour's nomination in this historically safe seat, where the party held nearly 49% in 2024. Labour applications closed on 4 September with selection set for 9 September, and reports highlight her profile as Camden council leader and former constituency party chair. Zack Polanski sits at 27.5% after announcing on 3 September his intention to stand for the Greens, who gained ground locally in May 2026 council results and finished third in the prior general election. Lower-priced names such as James White, Sarah Hayward, and others reflect limited declared support or selection uncertainty ahead of full candidate lists. The contest centers on Labour's organizational edge versus Green efforts to capitalize on left-leaning voter shifts in overlapping wards.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$15,256
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Sagal Abdi-Wali leads the market at 65% as the frontrunner for Labour's nomination in this historically safe seat, where the party held nearly 49% in 2024. Labour applications closed on 4 September with selection set for 9 September, and reports highlight her profile as Camden council leader and former constituency party chair. Zack Polanski sits at 27.5% after announcing on 3 September his intention to stand for the Greens, who gained ground locally in May 2026 council results and finished third in the prior general election. Lower-priced names such as James White, Sarah Hayward, and others reflect limited declared support or selection uncertainty ahead of full candidate lists. The contest centers on Labour's organizational edge versus Green efforts to capitalize on left-leaning voter shifts in overlapping wards.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$15,256
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sagal Abdi-Wali" at 64%, followed by "Zack Polanski" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" has generated $15.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" is "Sagal Abdi-Wali" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Zack Polanski" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.