As of early September 2026, the federal funds rate stands at 3.50–3.75%, with market-implied odds showing roughly 59% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation remains the dominant driver, as the May PCE price index rose 4.1% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—while core PCE reached 3.4%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June dot plot, where nine officials now project at least one hike by year-end, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy amid resilient labor data and supply pressures. The upcoming meeting, accompanied by updated economic projections, will provide the next key signal on whether the committee shifts from its current hold stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,849,390 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
50%
October Meeting
62%
$2,849,390 Vol.
September Meeting
$1,269,522 Vol.
50%
October Meeting
$619,868 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As of early September 2026, the federal funds rate stands at 3.50–3.75%, with market-implied odds showing roughly 59% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation remains the dominant driver, as the May PCE price index rose 4.1% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—while core PCE reached 3.4%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June dot plot, where nine officials now project at least one hike by year-end, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy amid resilient labor data and supply pressures. The upcoming meeting, accompanied by updated economic projections, will provide the next key signal on whether the committee shifts from its current hold stance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,849,390End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As of early September 2026, the federal funds rate stands at 3.50–3.75%, with market-implied odds showing roughly 59% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation remains the dominant driver, as the May PCE price index rose 4.1% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—while core PCE reached 3.4%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June dot plot, where nine officials now project at least one hike by year-end, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy amid resilient labor data and supply pressures. The upcoming meeting, accompanied by updated economic projections, will provide the next key signal on whether the committee shifts from its current hold stance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,849,390End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of early September 2026, the federal funds rate stands at 3.50–3.75%, with market-implied odds showing roughly 59% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation remains the dominant driver, as the May PCE price index rose 4.1% year-over-year—the highest since 2023—while core PCE reached 3.4%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June dot plot, where nine officials now project at least one hike by year-end, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy amid resilient labor data and supply pressures. The upcoming meeting, accompanied by updated economic projections, will provide the next key signal on whether the committee shifts from its current hold stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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