Recent U.S. employment data showing nearly three times the expected job gains has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59 percent, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50-3.75 percent. Persistent inflation, with July headline CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core at 2.5 percent, continues to exceed the 2 percent target, prompting hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and several policymakers who now project at least one increase by year-end. The August CPI release on September 11 will provide the final key input before the decision, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect traders pricing in a modest tightening path amid supply disruptions and elevated energy prices. Strong labor market conditions reduce the likelihood of a dovish pivot absent cooler inflation prints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,849,206 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
50%
October Meeting
62%
$2,849,206 Vol.
September Meeting
$1,269,338 Vol.
50%
October Meeting
$619,868 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. employment data showing nearly three times the expected job gains has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59 percent, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50-3.75 percent. Persistent inflation, with July headline CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core at 2.5 percent, continues to exceed the 2 percent target, prompting hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and several policymakers who now project at least one increase by year-end. The August CPI release on September 11 will provide the final key input before the decision, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect traders pricing in a modest tightening path amid supply disruptions and elevated energy prices. Strong labor market conditions reduce the likelihood of a dovish pivot absent cooler inflation prints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,849,206End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. employment data showing nearly three times the expected job gains has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59 percent, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50-3.75 percent. Persistent inflation, with July headline CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core at 2.5 percent, continues to exceed the 2 percent target, prompting hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and several policymakers who now project at least one increase by year-end. The August CPI release on September 11 will provide the final key input before the decision, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect traders pricing in a modest tightening path amid supply disruptions and elevated energy prices. Strong labor market conditions reduce the likelihood of a dovish pivot absent cooler inflation prints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,849,206End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. employment data showing nearly three times the expected job gains has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59 percent, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50-3.75 percent. Persistent inflation, with July headline CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core at 2.5 percent, continues to exceed the 2 percent target, prompting hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and several policymakers who now project at least one increase by year-end. The August CPI release on September 11 will provide the final key input before the decision, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect traders pricing in a modest tightening path amid supply disruptions and elevated energy prices. Strong labor market conditions reduce the likelihood of a dovish pivot absent cooler inflation prints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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