Recent U.S. inflation data, including July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with energy price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range has held since December amid a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid economic activity. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed’s June 2026 projections and shift away from forward guidance have reinforced a data-dependent, restrictive bias, supporting the 27.5% odds of a 25 basis-point hike while keeping cut probabilities below 5%. Traders are monitoring the September 11 CPI release and September FOMC for signals that could alter the path ahead of the October decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,280,160 Vol.
$1,280,160 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
28%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 28%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,280,160 Vol.
$1,280,160 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$210,144 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$486,333 Vol.
4%
No change
$215,220 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$217,212 Vol.
28%
50+ bps increase
$151,251 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with energy price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range has held since December amid a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid economic activity. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed’s June 2026 projections and shift away from forward guidance have reinforced a data-dependent, restrictive bias, supporting the 27.5% odds of a 25 basis-point hike while keeping cut probabilities below 5%. Traders are monitoring the September 11 CPI release and September FOMC for signals that could alter the path ahead of the October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,280,160End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with energy price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range has held since December amid a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid economic activity. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed’s June 2026 projections and shift away from forward guidance have reinforced a data-dependent, restrictive bias, supporting the 27.5% odds of a 25 basis-point hike while keeping cut probabilities below 5%. Traders are monitoring the September 11 CPI release and September FOMC for signals that could alter the path ahead of the October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,280,160End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data, including July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with energy price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range has held since December amid a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid economic activity. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed’s June 2026 projections and shift away from forward guidance have reinforced a data-dependent, restrictive bias, supporting the 27.5% odds of a 25 basis-point hike while keeping cut probabilities below 5%. Traders are monitoring the September 11 CPI release and September FOMC for signals that could alter the path ahead of the October decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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