The Baku City Circuit's narrow street layout, tight 90-degree corners, close walls, and long high-speed straight create frequent opportunities for contact, debris, and tire or brake issues that often trigger safety cars or virtual safety cars, a pattern seen in every prior Azerbaijan Grand Prix. At the same time, the 50% implied probability reflects trader views of a competitive balance, where 2026 regulation changes could promote more stable handling or fewer errors during restarts into Turn 1, alongside typical factors like wind gusts, track evolution, and one-stop tire strategies that sometimes allow clean runs. Recent form from similar street circuits, grid positioning after qualifying, and any late reliability concerns could shift odds toward higher likelihood of neutralisation, while strong single-lap pace and minimal incidents would support the no-safety-car outcome.