Jean Smart’s commanding 91.8% market-implied odds for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series stem from her four straight prior wins as Deborah Vance on HBO Max’s Hacks, the series’ record 24 nominations for its fifth and final season, and consistent critical praise for her performance. Academy voters frequently honor performers and shows in their farewell year, reinforcing trader consensus around a potential record-tying fifth victory. The other nominees—Lisa Kudrow in The Comeback, Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary, Elle Fanning in Margo’s Got Money Troubles, and Ayo Edebiri in The Bear—remain long shots, though an upset could occur if late voting momentum shifts toward a different farewell campaign or if voters seek to spread recognition across multiple series ahead of the September 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series
Jean Smart – “Hacks” 91.8%
Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback” 5.0%
Ayo Edebiri – “The Bear” 1.9%
Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary” 1.4%
$38,719 Vol.
$38,719 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
Jean Smart – “Hacks”
92%
Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback”
5%
Ayo Edebiri – “The Bear”
2%
Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary”
1%
Elle Fanning – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
1%
Jean Smart – “Hacks” 91.8%
Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback” 5.0%
Ayo Edebiri – “The Bear” 1.9%
Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary” 1.4%
$38,719 Vol.
$38,719 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
Jean Smart – “Hacks”
$26,320 Vol.
92%
Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback”
$3,968 Vol.
5%
Ayo Edebiri – “The Bear”
$2,670 Vol.
2%
Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary”
$2,655 Vol.
1%
Elle Fanning – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
$3,106 Vol.
1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jean Smart’s commanding 91.8% market-implied odds for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series stem from her four straight prior wins as Deborah Vance on HBO Max’s Hacks, the series’ record 24 nominations for its fifth and final season, and consistent critical praise for her performance. Academy voters frequently honor performers and shows in their farewell year, reinforcing trader consensus around a potential record-tying fifth victory. The other nominees—Lisa Kudrow in The Comeback, Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary, Elle Fanning in Margo’s Got Money Troubles, and Ayo Edebiri in The Bear—remain long shots, though an upset could occur if late voting momentum shifts toward a different farewell campaign or if voters seek to spread recognition across multiple series ahead of the September 14 ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$38,719End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jean Smart’s commanding 91.8% market-implied odds for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series stem from her four straight prior wins as Deborah Vance on HBO Max’s Hacks, the series’ record 24 nominations for its fifth and final season, and consistent critical praise for her performance. Academy voters frequently honor performers and shows in their farewell year, reinforcing trader consensus around a potential record-tying fifth victory. The other nominees—Lisa Kudrow in The Comeback, Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary, Elle Fanning in Margo’s Got Money Troubles, and Ayo Edebiri in The Bear—remain long shots, though an upset could occur if late voting momentum shifts toward a different farewell campaign or if voters seek to spread recognition across multiple series ahead of the September 14 ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38,719End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jean Smart’s commanding 91.8% market-implied odds for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series stem from her four straight prior wins as Deborah Vance on HBO Max’s Hacks, the series’ record 24 nominations for its fifth and final season, and consistent critical praise for her performance. Academy voters frequently honor performers and shows in their farewell year, reinforcing trader consensus around a potential record-tying fifth victory. The other nominees—Lisa Kudrow in The Comeback, Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary, Elle Fanning in Margo’s Got Money Troubles, and Ayo Edebiri in The Bear—remain long shots, though an upset could occur if late voting momentum shifts toward a different farewell campaign or if voters seek to spread recognition across multiple series ahead of the September 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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