**No removal of any STF justice by impeachment before 2027 carries a 91.3% implied probability because the Senate has never successfully removed a justice despite accumulating 109 pending requests, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes.** Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance proceedings, describing the volume as unusual, while Lula-aligned senators provide a reliable blocking majority. Recent disclosures of messages between Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro intensified opposition calls in early September 2026, yet procedural requirements—including potential two-thirds Senate thresholds—and the short window before 2027 limit momentum. Internal STF disputes and October 2026 elections may reshape dynamics afterward, but current institutional and political safeguards sustain trader expectations of continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
$87,623 Vol.
$87,623 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
$87,623 Vol.
$87,623 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No removal of any STF justice by impeachment before 2027 carries a 91.3% implied probability because the Senate has never successfully removed a justice despite accumulating 109 pending requests, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes.** Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance proceedings, describing the volume as unusual, while Lula-aligned senators provide a reliable blocking majority. Recent disclosures of messages between Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro intensified opposition calls in early September 2026, yet procedural requirements—including potential two-thirds Senate thresholds—and the short window before 2027 limit momentum. Internal STF disputes and October 2026 elections may reshape dynamics afterward, but current institutional and political safeguards sustain trader expectations of continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$87,623End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No removal of any STF justice by impeachment before 2027 carries a 91.3% implied probability because the Senate has never successfully removed a justice despite accumulating 109 pending requests, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes.** Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance proceedings, describing the volume as unusual, while Lula-aligned senators provide a reliable blocking majority. Recent disclosures of messages between Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro intensified opposition calls in early September 2026, yet procedural requirements—including potential two-thirds Senate thresholds—and the short window before 2027 limit momentum. Internal STF disputes and October 2026 elections may reshape dynamics afterward, but current institutional and political safeguards sustain trader expectations of continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$87,623End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No removal of any STF justice by impeachment before 2027 carries a 91.3% implied probability because the Senate has never successfully removed a justice despite accumulating 109 pending requests, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes.** Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance proceedings, describing the volume as unusual, while Lula-aligned senators provide a reliable blocking majority. Recent disclosures of messages between Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro intensified opposition calls in early September 2026, yet procedural requirements—including potential two-thirds Senate thresholds—and the short window before 2027 limit momentum. Internal STF disputes and October 2026 elections may reshape dynamics afterward, but current institutional and political safeguards sustain trader expectations of continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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