Federal investigations into Eric Swalwell remain at the evidence-gathering stage following August 2026 FBI searches that seized his electronic devices under a civil rights statute tied to sexual misconduct allegations from multiple accusers. State probes in Manhattan and Los Angeles continue in parallel, but no indictments have been announced. Device analysis and inter-agency coordination typically require weeks or months before prosecutors decide on charges, leaving limited runway before the September 30 resolution date. Earlier scrutiny over Swalwell’s past contacts with a suspected Chinese operative produced no criminal action. Traders appear to view these timelines and procedural hurdles as the primary reasons the implied probability favors no charges by the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
16% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Federal investigations into Eric Swalwell remain at the evidence-gathering stage following August 2026 FBI searches that seized his electronic devices under a civil rights statute tied to sexual misconduct allegations from multiple accusers. State probes in Manhattan and Los Angeles continue in parallel, but no indictments have been announced. Device analysis and inter-agency coordination typically require weeks or months before prosecutors decide on charges, leaving limited runway before the September 30 resolution date. Earlier scrutiny over Swalwell’s past contacts with a suspected Chinese operative produced no criminal action. Traders appear to view these timelines and procedural hurdles as the primary reasons the implied probability favors no charges by the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Volume
$106End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Federal investigations into Eric Swalwell remain at the evidence-gathering stage following August 2026 FBI searches that seized his electronic devices under a civil rights statute tied to sexual misconduct allegations from multiple accusers. State probes in Manhattan and Los Angeles continue in parallel, but no indictments have been announced. Device analysis and inter-agency coordination typically require weeks or months before prosecutors decide on charges, leaving limited runway before the September 30 resolution date. Earlier scrutiny over Swalwell’s past contacts with a suspected Chinese operative produced no criminal action. Traders appear to view these timelines and procedural hurdles as the primary reasons the implied probability favors no charges by the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$106End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Federal investigations into Eric Swalwell remain at the evidence-gathering stage following August 2026 FBI searches that seized his electronic devices under a civil rights statute tied to sexual misconduct allegations from multiple accusers. State probes in Manhattan and Los Angeles continue in parallel, but no indictments have been announced. Device analysis and inter-agency coordination typically require weeks or months before prosecutors decide on charges, leaving limited runway before the September 30 resolution date. Earlier scrutiny over Swalwell’s past contacts with a suspected Chinese operative produced no criminal action. Traders appear to view these timelines and procedural hurdles as the primary reasons the implied probability favors no charges by the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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