Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term concludes in May 2027, with the first round of the successor election already scheduled for April 18, shifting political attention toward the campaign season. Major policy priorities, including the assisted dying law and revised social-media age restrictions, have advanced or been redirected through parliamentary channels and administrative redrafting rather than direct popular consultation. Earlier presidential statements referencing possible referendums under Article 11 on institutional, economic, or end-of-life questions produced no concrete timetable or decree. In a fragmented National Assembly and with limited remaining time before the transition, no acute legislative deadlock or official announcement has emerged that would prompt Macron to convene the electorate by December 31. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to the outcome not occurring.